No, nay, never .... but I’ll get back to you in 18 months’ time

No. Nay. Never. And ‘hmm, well, listen I’ll get back to you on that’ — probably in about a year to 18 months’ time.

No, nay, never .... but I’ll get back to you in 18 months’ time

For someone who doesn’t like making definitive coalition predictions, Micheál Martin seemed all too happy to play along during his party’s annual Ard Fheis at the weekend.

Speaking to reporters at the RDS in Dublin, the Fianna Fáil leader was steadfast in his views on a full coalition with Fine Gael, a similar pact with his own personal devil Sinn Féin, and any confidence and supply deal with Gerry Adams’ party.

Asked on Friday night by Raidio na Gaeltachta if he would still reject a Sinn Féin coalition even if it was his only way to become taoiseach, Mr Martin said “I’m positive Fianna Fáil will not be going into government with Sinn Féin”.

He was similarly clear in ruling out a confidence and supply deal with Sinn Féin which he initially hinted at over summer, telling a later media briefing such a move is “not a runner”.

And, asked on Saturday if Fianna Fáil may finally waltz up the coalition aisle, however reluctantly, with Fine Gael instead of demuring just outside the church gates — presumably with fundraising bucket gripped tightly behind its back — he was similarly unequivocal.

With the increasingly shaky confidence and supply deal taking large bite-size chunks out of Fianna Fáil’s ‘opposition’ credibility from both sides, the rejection of Fine Gael and Sinn Féin makes sense.

However, coupled with his view on Friday night that “no one will win” the next election, it left people scratching their heads.

If Micheál Martin wants to become taoiseach, and realistically the next election is his last chance, how does he propose to do it? As ever in politics, the answer lies in what isn’t said instead of what is.

Throughout his tip-toeing into the realms of coalition predictions, Mr Martin carefully left one option dangling in mid-air. And it is this option the Fianna Fáil leader now appears to be targeting.

Mr Martin specifically did not rule out a reversal of the confidence and supply deal, with Fine Gael backing up a Fianna Fáil-led minority government.

While stressing his belief that his party’s TD numbers will grow, he admitted “no one will win the next election” — a near foregone conclusion as boundary changes mean 80 seats will be needed for a majority.

And, crucially, he also said Fianna Fáil must be the main — but not only — party in the next government, leaving the door ajar for a fighting-for-its-life Labour, and others, to choose between a “right-wing” Leo Varadkar and an increasingly left-veering, conscientious Micheál Martin.

Mr Martin’s comments could, of course, all be a subtle bid to convince those supporting a Fine Gael coalition option or a pact with Sinn Féin that other less tainted deals are on offer.

They could also be designed to give him breathing space to decide on his next steps, which could yet see him fall back on his rejections.

However, increasingly those next steps appear to be heading to a certain house in Wexford. A destination which, if the message hidden behind Mr Martin’s words is to be believed, is now the only real option left for him on the table.

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