China’s national debt set to grow for four more years

China’s national debt will continue climbing for another four years, underscoring the risks facing policymakers as they strive to prevent a deeper slowdown without triggering a credit blowout.

Seven out of 12 economists, in a Bloomberg poll, said they foresaw the ratio increasing until at least 2019, with four expecting a peak in 2020 or later.

China’s debt will peak at 283% of GDP, according to the median estimate of eight economists.