What follows ‘no’ vote is likely to be painful

Croke Park II has been rejected, perhaps with a tight margin, but rejected nevertheless. What follows may not be pleasant.

Government has already threatened it will impose a 7% pay reduction across the board. However, that will result in widespread industrial action, the withdrawal of labour and vital services and general disruption at a time we need it least.

This government, even with the Dutch courage supplied by the troika, does not have the bottle to fight multiple battles simultaneously, particularly when it would mean the decimation of the Labour Party.

Indeed, it would not do much for Fine Gael either. Voting through such a measure at this time and then hoping the political climate will improve is just not going to happen.

Something will be patched together, if for no other reason than the retention of political seats for three or so more years. So we might not have a Croke Park II but instead will have Croke Park 2.1, although in this case it will not be an upgrade on Cork Park II. It will just have a reduced “cost”, at least, as far as the Government is concerned.

Most of us already disagree with our government’s continuing support for austerity. Its intention to exacerbate austerity measures is simply putting another nail in our hopes to get out of our current predicament. We have a dilemma. We have bought into the troika’s demands without, it would appear, much of a fight.

Government is intent on continuing to take money out of the economy and, in effect, it is maintaining its policy of austerity.

It is taking money out of people’s salaries, while at the same time increasing taxation in the form of water charges, property taxes and anything else that comes to mind. The insatiable beasts that are the ECB and the German economy are demanding we toe the line.

The bottom line is that some agreement that meets the targets that Government has determined, under the thumb of the troika, will have to be reached.

It may be dressed up differently but it is going to happen. The unfortunate thing is that the bully boys in government, the Department of Finance and the Revenue Commissioners, in the absence of their chosen targets will once again go after the unprotected and those in general who are unable to fend for themselves. They will continue to studiously avoid increasing taxes on the high rollers, in government, public sector, banking or the upper levels of business in general.

Now that Siptu members have spoken, loudly at that, with a 54% margin against to a 46% margin in favour the agreement is virtually a dead duck.

Even if it had voted for the agreement and thefinal congress vote was subsequently tight other unions had already indicated that they would not be bound by a tight margin in favour and projected that there would be an internal fight within the union movement.

It’s unfortunate that some of the unions should have made their decisions based on narrow sectorial issues. The PSEU union leader said “public servants cannot continue to be expected to carry a disproportionate share of the country’s burden”.

Much has been made of the efforts of others to create a divide between workers in this country. Such comments are divisive in themselves particularly so given the level of unemployment, emigration and business closures.

While public servants do have to suffer austerity they, so far, are not losing their jobs and their homes, or they do not have to emigrate unlike their private sector compatriots. Whether these unions like it or not we are in this together.

Ultimately, if we do not work together to get out of this, to persuade government and the troika of the error of their ways, to put in place a plan to ensure it never happens again we will all sink together.