China seen as key export partner

Ireland will post a healthy export performance over the next 17 years — helped by rising trade with China, which is expected to become the fourth biggest destination by 2030, according to HSBC’s global trade forecasts.

“Although Ireland’s main export marketsof the UK, USA, and Germany will remain the top three destinations, the main growth areas for its exports lie in emerging Asia,” said HSBC.

“This is evidenced by forecasted growth in exports to China of 11% per annum in the period 2016-2030.

“Alongside China, the forecasts also show India and Vietnam as the fastest-growing export markets to 2030, with Malaysia and Indonesia also becoming increasingly important.”

Ireland’s overall export performance is expected to be relatively favourable compared to its Western European peers.

Growth in merchandise exports from Ireland is, for example is expected to outstrip the UK, France, and Germany in the period 2021-2030, the bank added.

Exports to Turkey and the Middle East will also become more important.

Exports will be driven by chemicals, pharmaceuticals, scientific apparatus, and IT equipment.

Ireland has a good foothold in all of these sectors on the back of healthy flows of foreign direct investment over the past few decades.

Managing director and Ireland head of HSBC corporate banking, Alan Duffy, said: “Exports continue to play a key role in Ireland’s GDP growth and whilst our traditional export markets remain vital to this, it is increasingly important to look beyond them.

“Emerging markets are developing at a phenomenal pace and are set to reshape world trade patterns over the next 20 years.

“Understanding which sectors are growing in which markets delivers huge opportunities for businesses as they plan for the future and aim to capitalise on these trends.”