Scientist sounds warning over country’s grain yield potential
With world grain prices set to soar to new heights, UCD professor of crop science Jimmy Burke says the eventual Irish reduction in grain will be hit by factors such as poor harvesting conditions, plant diseases, and poorly filled grains which are an added feature of this year’s Irish crop.
“In some worst-case scenarios, grain yields could be reduced overall by 25% when all key factors are taken into account and, if current difficult harvesting conditions continue, losses could be much higher. As Ireland is already a grain deficit area and relies on imports to balance demand it is inevitable that there will be knock-on effects in terms of grain price, which will translate eventually to higher food prices this autumn.”
He said Irish pig producers were already in an aggravated loss-making situation. Current estimates suggest that things could get worse — cereal prices have risen significantly during the last two months and maize prices could rise yet more.
The UCD study suggests the price of wheat is also likely to rise as global stocks tighten. If food prices do not increase to reflect the situation, then the primary producer of products such as pig and poultry meat will suffer even more than at present, and many could go out of business.
Mr Burke said: “Grain markets have been shaken in the past few months by the worst drought in more than 50 years in the United States, which has really impacted negatively on the US maize crop — the world’s biggest maize producer — and which has sent prices to all-time highs.
“There are now drought problems in the US, Europe’s Balkan region, and Black Sea countries which are severely affecting the prospects for this year’s EU maize harvest, which will be up to 8m tonnes lower than 2011 EU harvest. All of these effects combined will add further pressure to a world market already suffering badly from lower grain yield estimates which are sending world prices soaring.”
He saw little room for any real improvement in yields this year, even if weather and growing conditions improved. Hot, dry weather in central and southern Europe has hit crop development generally, and maize in particular, and the reduction in yield potential is irreversible, he said.
“At this stage in the cropping cycle an improved outlook for the EU’s wheat harvest would have little impact on grain supply as this would be more than taken up by increased world demand and a shift by livestock farmers from using maize which will be in short supply and expensive.
“Europe and Ireland will also be affected by the GM issue as international market in grain and soya is now dominated by GM and the EU imports €12.5bn of these products every year for livestock feeding. With 70 GM varieties currently awaiting EU approval there is real potential for severe market disruption.
“It now looks likely that world maize production will be down by 70m tonnes which is a really serious issue globally as existing world stocks of grain are already at low levels. Weather tensions in grain markets have raised the spectre of a global food crisis such as the one in 2008, when surging prices of staple crops provoked rioting in some countries.
“Heavy and prolonged periods of rainfall, which has delayed harvesting in this country, has also had a similar effect in the UK, France and Germany.”
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