On the Campaign Trail - Episode 3: The verdict in Cork-East

Daniel McConnell and Mick Clifford have been on the campaign trail and they deliver their verdict here.

All this week, ahead of Election 2020, we will be taking a look at all of the runners and riders in each of the five Cork Constituencies.

We will be examining the lie of the land in each area and crucially delivering our verdict as to who we think will fill the 18 seats from Cork in the 33rd Dáil.

Today, we are looking at the Constituency of Cork-East .

This is a four-seat constituency and there are 13 candidates competing.

The four out-going TDs Pat Buckley of Sinn Féin, Sean Sherlock of Labour, Minister David Stanton of Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil's Kevin O'Keeffe are all seeking re-election.

In addition to the above named, the others contesting the election are:

• Conor Hannon of Aontu
• Thomas Kiely, Independent
• Mary Linehan Foley, Independent
• James O'Connor, Fianna Fáil
• Pa O'Driscoll, Fine Gael
• Shane O'Grady, Independent
• Sean O'Leary, Independent
• Liam Quaide, Green Party
• Frank Shinnick, Irish Freedom Party

So last time, each of the four main parties, if you can still call Labour a main party, took one seat each. Sean Sherlock defied the national trend against his party and held his seat while Pat Buckley retained the seat which had been held by Sandra McLellan who stood down in somewhat acrimonious circumstances internally within Sinn Féin.

David Stanton, the junior Justice Minister and Fianna Fáil's Kevin O'Keeffe are also both looking to retain their seats.

McConnell's verdict

“What Cork East does, the country decides,” said John Paul Phelan.

This is a patchwork of a constituency, rather than one unified area. Different geographical areas like Youghal and Middleton in the North East of the Constituency, you have Fermoy and Mitchelstown and then Mallow and Cobh. So we have two nothern TDs and two Southern TDs at Present.

So this is one of the hardest constituencies to call with more than one party being hampered by internal struggles and disagreements.

This time, I see it as Kevin O'Keeffe, scion of the great Ned O'Keeffe should be safe.

David Stanton from the Middleton area should also get elected but Pa O'Driscoll does not seem likely to have enough to get elected. So no second seat.

Labour's Sean Sherlock should just have about enough to keep his seat, despite his low key manner.

The final seat is a run off between Buckley and Fianna Fáil's youngest candidate James O'Connor, who may get a bounce from the wave of Micheal for Taoiseach and also from Fine Gael transfers.

So I am calling it, the four seats for Cork East will be – Kevin O'Keeffe, David Stanton, Sean Sherlock and James O'Connor at the expense of Sinn Féin's Pat Buckley.

Watch back on episode 1 and 2 here...