Scotland avoided 'economic trauma'; SNP calls Blair comment 'toxic'

Scotland would now be in “economic trauma” if it had voted for independence in the referendum, former British prime minister Tony Blair has claimed.

Mr Blair said the country would have been left trying to negotiate its currency during the oil downturn, meaning “Tory cuts ... would be dwarfed by the SNP cuts necessary to keep the Scottish economy afloat”.

The former British Labour leader also described last September’s referendum as a “near-death experience” for the UK in which it came close to being relegated from “the Premier League of nations”.

The SNP said the intervention would simply remind people of Mr Blair’s “toxic legacy” from his time in power.

Mr Blair made the comments as he gave a speech in Newton Aycliffe, County Durham, England, in his former Sedgefield constituency.

He spoke primarily to warn that British Prime Minister David Cameron’s promise of a referendum on European Union (EU) membership risks economic chaos and damaging Britain’s position in the world.

He pointed to Scotland’s 2014 ballot – in which 45% of those who voted backed the creation of a separate Scotland – as he set out his case over the “risk” posed by another referendum.

Addressing an audience at the Xcel Centre, Mr Blair said: “We have just been through the near-death experience for the UK of the Scottish referendum.

“The day was saved, but almost half the Scottish people voted to break up a partnership which has served all the nations of the UK well for over 300 years.

“The economic case for separation was always weak because of the way over those years the economies have integrated.

“Now that case has collapsed along with the oil price. All the calculations made at the time of the referendum on revenue, on foreign exchange, on the balance of payments are now massively reduced because the oil price has halved. Norway, for example, has suffered a 30% plus fall in the value of its currency.

“I had to laugh when I heard the SNP leader challenge (Labour leader) Ed Miliband over whether he voted for Tory public spending cuts.

“The reality is that had Scotland voted to exit the UK it would now be in economic trauma, trying to negotiate its currency against a backdrop of the sliding global devaluation of oil related economies.

“Never mind Tory cuts, they would be dwarfed by the SNP cuts necessary to keep the Scottish economy afloat in the radically-altered market conditions we now face.”

The former PM admitted that, according to the polls, support for the SNP is stronger than at the time of the referendum.

“Nationalism is a powerful sentiment. Let that genie out of the bottle and it is a Herculean task to put it back,” he insisted.

Mr Blair went on: “The referendum on Europe carries with it the same risk. For that reason, should the Conservatives win, one other thing will be certain.

“The PM will be spending more energy, will have more sleepless nights about it, be more focused on it than literally any other single issue.

“He knows the vastness of the decision. He knows the penalty of failure. He knows exit will define his legacy. And, following the Scottish referendum, he knows the perilous fragility of public support for the sensible choice.”

Mr Blair said the high turnout in Scotland’s vote proves the importance of the decision on holding an EU referendum.

He added: “Remember the relief we felt when Scotland voted No? Why was that?

“Because, towards the end, having paid only intermittent attention to the enormity of the decision, we awoke to it and realised – I think with shock – how close we had come to relegating ourselves from the Premier League of nations.

“Now, think if the vote had gone the other way. It doesn’t bear thinking of. It would be exactly the same with a vote on Europe.”

The SNP's General Election campaign director, Angus Robertson, said: ``Labour candidates across Scotland will be horrified at Tony Blair's intervention - his appearance simply reminds people of his toxic legacy of the illegal invasion of Iraq, starting the process of health privatisation with foundation hospitals, and breaking his promises by imposing tuition fees and top up fees.

“Mr Blair is the very last person who could succeed in stemming the flow of former Labour supporters to the SNP – indeed, he is likely to have exactly the opposite effect.

“For him to try and claim that Norway is some kind of economic basket case is ludicrous – this is exactly the same ’too wee, too poor’ rhetoric that Labour used while they campaigned with the Tories in the referendum, and which has caused so many people in Scotland to turn their backs on Labour.

“While successive Tory and Labour UK governments were squandering Scotland’s fantastic oil resources, Norway husbanded theirs into an oil fund which is now the largest sovereign wealth fund in the world – allowing them to manage the fluctuations in oil price and build one of the fairest, most prosperous nations on Earth.

“The SNP has put forward sensible plans which would mean that any in/out referendum on Europe would require an exit vote in all four nations for the UK to leave – and of course the best way to protect Scotland’s place in Europe would be if Labour backed the SNP’s promise to vote to block any Tory Government and its Ukip-driven agenda from ever taking office in the first place.”