Violence threat hangs over Afghan polls

The threat of violence loomed larger over Afghanistan’s presidential election today as Hamid Karzai’s main rival suggested voting could be rigged.

Abdullah Abdullah, a former foreign minister, told a crowd of flag-waving supporters in Kabul yesterday that he would win the election “if they don’t steal your votes”.

Analysts say that rhetoric could stoke a violent backlash if his supporters believe they have been cheated in Thursday’s election.

Substantial questions over the fairness of the balloting could result in a winner without real legitimacy – a serious problem in a country where the central government is struggling to exert control beyond the capital.

The US is spending millions of dollars and pressing a new military offensive this month to make sure the voting comes off well.

But Mr Abdullah, an ophthalmologist who has railed against government corruption, is not the only one who expects fraud. Voting observers warn that cheating will most likely take place at polling stations in remote or dangerous areas where independent monitors cannot be present.

A black market for voter registration cards is said to be flourishing and a suspiciously high number of women – far more than men – have been registered to vote in culturally conservative provinces where President Karzai expects to do well among his fellow ethnic Pashtuns who form the majority there.

US secretary of state Hillary Clinton called today for “credible, secure and inclusive elections” and urged Afghans “to make election day secure, to eliminate fraud, and to address any complaints fairly and quickly”.

“We call on candidates and their supporters to behave responsibly before and after the elections,” she said.

Mr Abdullah’s core group of supporters – ethnic Tajiks – have taken to the streets before.

In May 2006 a US military truck crashed into a line of vehicles, sparking riots by hundreds of Tajiks who rampaged through Kabul. About 20 people were killed in the crash and subsequent unrest.

Mr Abdullah’s campaign manager Abdul Satar Murad was quoted last month as predicting street violence if Mr Abdullah did not win, contending that Mr Karzai could not prevail unless he stole the vote.

Similar allegations triggered violent protests in Afghanistan’s western neighbour, Iran, after President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad claimed victory in the June 12 balloting.

Following an uproar over his comments, campaign manager Mr Murad said he was misquoted. But the language he purportedly used is almost the same that Mr Abdullah now employs.

“If there is no fraud in the election, it is clear for the nation who the winner will be and who the next president will be – if they don’t steal your votes,” Mr Abdullah told thousands of supporters at Kabul’s main sports stadium yesterday, the last day of the two-month campaign.

But Mr Murad said Mr Abdullah was not stoking violence among supporters in the case of a loss.

“They will be watching the process, and if things are fair and impartial, this (an electoral defeat) is part of the game. ... There are diplomatic channels to go through and express your feelings,” he said.

At the other end of the spectrum, the Taliban warned Afghans not to cast ballots, saying voters might be the victims of attacks on polling sites.

Rumours have circulated that villagers with indelible ink on their fingers – a fraud prevention method to deter repeat voting – could be attacked, or even have their fingers chopped off.

Recent opinion polls in Afghanistan point to a Karzai win, with the president leading Mr Abdullah by about 20%. None of the polls, however, has Mr Karzai with more than about 45% support and the president needs 50% of the votes to avoid a two-person run-off.