Bird-flu expert: There's more to come

The discovery of a dead swan with H5 bird flu in Scotland indicates that many more wild birds in the area are likely to be infected, a leading British virologist says.

Professor John Oxford, scientific director of Retroscreen Virology Ltd and Professor of Virology at St Bartholomew’s and the Royal London Hospital, said last night: “It doesn’t look too good at this moment.

"Obviously it needs final confirmation from laboratory tests that it is H5N1 but the fact is it is H5.

“You can imagine the swan as a piece of litmus paper. A dead swan will indicate that some wild bird like a duck has silently infected it so there will be other wild birds around that are H5-positive. It means the virus has arrived.

“However, it is still a big step away from a domestic chicken being infected or even a human, but it could be the first little step on a pathway.”

Prof. Oxford said it was disappointing, but not surprising, that the virus had arrived in Britain.

“There is nothing special about the British Isles. The fact of 20 miles of water doesn’t really cut much ice with a bird.”

He said if precautions were put in place it was not inevitable that the virus would spread to the domestic poultry.

“Every farmer would be rightly worried and that’s why I hope they are going to take as many precautions as possible.”

Prof. Oxford said the risk to humans was minimal and that knowledge of the virus would protect the public.

He said the deaths in Asia and eastern Europe had occurred in people who had come into very close contact with chickens.

“You have to get very close for it to be passed on. You wouldn’t catch this from walking past an infected bird. You would have to be touching its beak or plucking its feathers or getting yourself contaminated with droppings.

“The danger to humans at this stage is virtually zero. The danger for chickens and turkeys in the immediate area will be much higher.”

Asked whether the British domestic flock should be vaccinated, he said it was a theoretical question as he suspected there would now be insufficient stocks of vaccine.

He said he wished Britain had followed the example of Holland and France and vaccinated the domestic flock a few months ago.

Even if the virus passed to chickens and turkeys there was “absolutely no chance” of humans catching it from eating the meat, he said.

“No one is going to catch this virus from a cooked chicken. This virus is easily destroyed and there is no risk whatsoever from eating a chicken,” he said.

Dr David Nabarro, United Nations senior co-ordinator for avian and human influenza, said correct procedures were being followed by the authorities in the area.

He told BBC News 24 last night: “The important issue is that we are expecting to see cases of H5N1 in wild birds at this time.

“The requirement, as with other situations in which poultry can get infected by viruses from wild birds, is try to make sure that this does not get into the domestic poultry population.

“What is being done is quite correct. There should be no danger at all to human beings as a result of eating poultry at this time and in relation to this particular case.”

Virologist Dr Chris Smith, of Cambridge University, said he supported the use of vaccines to combat the disease, but said the authorities face a “challenge” to get enough supplies.

He told BBC News 24 it could take up to 40 million eggs to create enough vaccine for the British population alone.

Farm animal welfare group Compassion In World Farming (CIWF) called on the UK government to ensure that any emergency slaughter programme was well planned and co-ordinated and based on good science, not panic.

CIWF chief executive Philip Lymbery said: “If avian influenza is subsequently found in poultry, in order for animals not to suffer, and to prevent increased risk of spread of the disease to people, humane slaughter methods should be used.

“This means birds should be killed immediately without suffering or they must be adequately stunned and remain unconscious until the time of slaughter, in line with EU regulations and the World Organisation for Animal Health’s internationally accepted guidelines.”