Olmert's centrist party drops in polls

The centrist Kadima Party dropped in opinion polls today, a day before Israel’s elections, a sign acting that Prime Minister Ehud Olmert might have difficulty forming a coalition that will back his plan to withdraw from parts of the West Bank and draw Israel’s final borders by 2010.

Kadima still holds a strong lead over the left-centre Labour Party and the hawkish Likud Party.

But if Kadima only pulls in 34 of 120 parliament seats, as polls predicted today, Olmert may have to include hard-line parties opposed to a West Bank pullback in his coalition.

Candidates spent their last day campaigning, targeting swing voters who pollsters say make up about 10% of the electorate, for a total of 24 parliament seats.

Labour leader Amir Peretz handed out red carnations in Tel Aviv, while Likud’s Benjamin Netanyahu said prayers at the Western Wall, Judaism’s holiest site. Kadima’s No. 2, Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni was to tour Jerusalem’s main outdoor market, long a Likud stronghold, later today.

In Gaza City, incoming Palestinian Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh told the Palestinian parliament he is ready to hold contacts with international mediators on solving the Mideast conflict. He did not mention Israel by name, but his willingness to talk to the so-called Quartet – the United States, the United Nations, the European Union and Russia – could be a first sign of flexibility.

Hamas has rejected demands by the Quartet that it recognise Israel, renounce violence and recognise existing peace agreements, and Haniyeh did not explain how he would get around those disagreements.

“The government is ready for dialogue with the Quartet, and looking for every possible way to end the conflict and the occupation,” he said.

Parliament was to approve the new Hamas government tomorrow or Wednesday.

On the eve of the Israeli election, police tightened security, fearing Palestinian militants would launch an attack in an attempt to influence the outcome of the vote, as has happened in the past. Traffic at West Bank checkpoints backed up, with soldiers conducting more thorough checks on Palestinians.

Police also closed a hotly disputed holy site in the Old City of Jerusalem to visitors Monday. The Al Aqsa Mosque compound, built on the ruins of the biblical Jewish temples, is a magnet for extremists.

Jerusalem police spokesman Shmuel Ben-Ruby said Muslim worshippers would be allowed into the site, with is administered by Muslim authorities.

In Gaza, Israeli aircraft fired missiles Monday at a group of Palestinians preparing to launch home-made rockets at Israel, killing an Islamic Jihad militant, Palestinian security officials and the army said. Earlier Monday, the air force fired missiles at a group of militants, wounding two people, Palestinian security officials and the army said.

The Israeli air force frequently launches air strikes in Gaza, aiming for top militants and cells responsible for almost daily rocket fire.

Today’s polls, the last before the vote, predicted Labour would be the second largest party in Israel’s parliament. The hawkish Likud, headed by Netanyahu, would come in third, racking up between 13-15 seats, a serious blow to a party that dominated Israeli politics for most of the past three decades.

A Dahaf Institute poll published in the Israeli daily Yediot Ahronot showed Kadima had lost two seats, dropping to 34, Labour remained steady at 21 and Likud had dropped one to 13.

A Smith Institute poll published in the English-language daily, The Jerusalem Post, had Kadima pulling in between 33-34 seats, Labour between 20-21 seats and Likud steady at 15.

The hawkish Israel Beitenu, an immigrants’ party headed by Avigdor Lieberman, an emigre from the former Soviet Union with a tough-guy image, is expected to make a strong showing. Polls predict Lieberman will win 12 seats, up from two he holds now.

“He’s (Lieberman) not corrupt and he’ll do a lot of things that Likud couldn’t do and Olmert won’t do,” said Shimon Tubul, a 30-year-old fruit seller at Jerusalem’s outdoor market who voted Likud in the past.

Pollsters said turnout could be lower than in previous elections. “I’ll be at home sleeping. It’s the best thing to do,” said Behruz Tatush, a 62-year-old from Jerusalem who voted for Sharon in the 2003 election.

The establishment of Kadima in November shook up Israeli politics. For the first time, a centrist party has a chance of upending the two largest movements, Labour and Likud. When Sharon established the party, it was polling more than 40 seats, but since his stroke, Kadima’s strength has diminished somewhat.

“Kadima’s central problem ... is that it is suddenly becoming a mood party and this is not a healthy situation,” Yaron Dekel, a political analyst with Israel Radio, said. “A few weeks ago it was high, and it was the bon-ton of the elections. But time has passed and there is an erosion process, and the erosion is occurring in Kadima.”

Itzik Haim, 53, a grocer from the Jerusalem suburb Zur Hadassah, said he was behind Kadima when Sharon was in charge. “I was undecided for a long time. I am traditionally Likud and I am going back home,” Haim said, happy to have finally made a decision.

Under Israel’s electoral system, the leader of the largest party is given first stab at forming a coalition that controls a majority of the 120 parliament seats. Olmert could invite both moderate and religious parties into his government.

Analysts say Olmert could only be denied the premiership if hard-line and religious parties win a so-called “blocking majority” of 60 seats, and agree to form a coalition.

No party has ever won an outright majority in Israel’s 58-year history.