Iran nuclear stand-off 'reaching critical state'

Iran has threatened to retaliate in the face of almost certain referral to the UN Security Council for its nuclear activities, and the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency said the dispute was ”reaching a critical phase”.

Before a decision by the IAEA’s 35-nation board, US and European delegates turned to behind-the-scenes diplomacy yesterday to build the broadest possible support for reporting Iran to the council over concerns it is seeking nuclear weapons.

Cuba, Venezuela, Syria and a few other nations at odds with Washington remained opposed. India was said to be leaning toward supporting referral.

Diplomats accredited to the meeting said backing for Iran had shrunk among the UN nuclear watchdog’s board since Russia and China swung their support behind referral at an overnight meeting with the US, France and Britain – the other three permanent council members – that started on Monday.

“There’s a solid majority in favour of reporting,” Gregory L. Schulte, the chief US delegate to the IAEA, told The Associated Press. “There’s even a more solid majority after Monday.”

US State Department spokesman Sean McCormack said the number of nations expected to vote against referral were in the “low to single digits”.

Iran remained defiant. In a last-minute warning, Tehran’s chief nuclear negotiator told IAEA chief Mohamed ElBaradei that his country would severely curtail agency inspections and resume uranium enrichment if reported to the council.

Ali Larijani, in a letter made available to the AP, said referral would leave Iran no choice but “to suspend all the voluntary measures and extra cooperation” with the IAEA – shorthand for reducing IAEA monitoring to a minimum.

Furthermore, “all the peaceful nuclear activities being under voluntary suspension would be resumed without any restriction”, said the letter, suggesting a resumption of work on full-scale uranium enrichment – a possible pathway to nuclear arms.

Iran has made such threats before. What was significant this time, however, was that the warnings were in the form of a formal notification to the head of the IAEA.

As yesterday’s meeting adjourned, US and European diplomats intensified efforts to widen support for a European draft resolution calling for Iran to be brought before the council.

ElBaradei said there was a “window of opportunity” to defuse the crisis, stressing that even if the issue is referred, the Security Council would not take up the issue before next month.

“We are reaching a critical phase but it is not a crisis,” he said.

Iran, which claims its program is peaceful and aimed only at generating electricity, has repeatedly warned that such action would provoke it into doing exactly what the world wants it to renounce – starting full-scale uranium enrichment – as well as curtailing IAEA inspections.

Key members of the Security Council remained unmoved.

Grigory Berdennikov, Russia’s chief IAEA delegate, reinforced Moscow’s position outside the meeting, saying referral to the Security Council would send Iran “a serious signal.”

Schulte agreed.

“It is time to send a clear and unequivocal message to the Iranian regime about the concerns of the international community by reporting this issue to the Security Council,” he said.

Washington has waited years for international suspicions over Iran’s nuclear ambitions to translate into support among board nations.

Only a simple majority is needed to approve the text, but the US and its backers have held off pushing for earlier referral in hopes of building support for the measure. Support has grown since January 10, when Iran stripped IAEA seals from enrichment equipment and announced it would restart the program.