Bush holds 7% lead in election race

George Bush has a seven-point lead over his Democratic challenger, John Kerry according to a US poll published today.

George Bush solidified his advantage among male voters last month and holds his highest ratings since January on job performance, the US economy and Iraq, according to a poll published today.

Bush has a seven-point lead over his Democratic challenger, Senator John Kerry - 52% to 45% among likely voters – in the Associated Press-Ipsos survey less than six weeks before the November 2 presidential election.

Independent candidate Ralph Nader was backed by 1%.

President Bush held the advantage despite increasing violence in Iraq and a week of attacks on his Iraq policy by an increasingly combative Kerry.

“We took a lead after our convention and the lead has held,” said Matthew Dowd, a senior Bush campaign strategist. Bush has a slight lead in some polls, and is running even in others.

Dowd wasn’t assuming a Bush advantage would hold up through the election, however.

“The way we’re approaching this, it will be a very close election,” he said, adding that turning out Republican voters will be crucial.

The Kerry campaign focused its message in recent days on growing problems in Iraq as Bush has talked about making steady progress there.

“If you look at all the recent polls, this race is headed back to even,” said Mark Mellman, a Kerry campaign pollster. He said Kerry still has time to “make the case” with voters.

“What happens in the next 40 days will be vastly more important than anything that’s happened in the last six months,” Mellman said. “On Election Day, there will be 10% who said they made their decision in the last two or three days.”

In the 2000 presidential election, three in 10 voters said they made up their minds in the last month, including one in 10 who did so in the final three days, according to exit polls. The undecided group is believed to be smaller this year.

With time running out, Kerry has much important work to do in his campaign, the AP-Ipsos poll suggested.

Bush holds a 17-point lead among men. And Bush and Kerry are tied among women, a traditionally Democratic group that now favours Bush on protecting the country.

People are about evenly divided on Bush’s handling of Iraq – not that strong a rating, but better than in June when just over four in 10 approved, according to AP polling.