Butler 'a by-election boost for Blair'

Lord Butler’s report into the intelligence on Iraq could help Tony Blair in tomorrow’s by-elections, a political expert said today.

The British government is in danger of losing two mid-term polls and the “safe” Labour seats of Leicester South and Birmingham Hodge Hill.

But Professor John Benyon, professor in political studies at the University of Leicester, believes the Butler Report could help save Blair’s skin by dampening the Iraq War as a by-election issue.

He said: “I think that the Butler Report is as good as the government could have hoped for.

"Basically it largely seems to exonerate the prime minister and his colleagues of any charge of operating in bad faith.

“The sort of criticisms that have been made, that the prime minister misled the press and the public, are not supported by the document.

“On the doorstep in Leicester South, we have found that the Iraq War does not seem to be a big issue and the Butler Report is likely to make this less of an issue.”

Prof Benyon has been monitoring the by-election campaigns in the hotly-contested Leicester South constituency and believes tomorrow’s by-election is “too close to call”.

He said Labour could hold on to the seat formerly held by stalwart MP Jim Marshall if local issues are more important to the electorate than national policies.

In the May 2003 local elections, the Liberal Democrats snatched control of the city council from Labour, in a pact with the Conservatives, thanks to a campaign focusing heavily on the war.

Since then, the Muslim communities of Leicester South have been among groups affected by sweeping voluntary sector cuts brought in by the Lib-Dem-led alliance.

Prof Benyon said: “It’s very difficult to make any sort of prediction. In normal circumstances, which they are not, a Labour majority like this would be vulnerable to the Liberal Democrats.

“The Lib Dem council election victory could rebound on them because they have introduced some unpopular cuts. These cuts have fallen on community and voluntary organisations … but they affect a lot of people in Leicester South.

“Labour is deeply unpopular because of the war, particularly in Muslim communities, which are significant in Leicester. But it’s not clear how they are being recommended to vote in their communities.”

He added: “I think it’s very difficult to say what will be the major issue when people vote. In normal circumstances, one would expect this to go against the party in power as people take the opportunity to register protests against lots of different policies – top-up fees or the war for instance.

“It’s not normal times. The extent to which the war has been a major issue is debatable. I think we have got a real mixture between local and international issues.

“I think it will boil down to who gets their vote out. It will matter in this election. It’s very difficult to call.”