Iraq may have to wait 15 months for elections

US administrator Paul Bremer says it could take more than 15 months to hold elections in Iraq – a much longer timeframe than the country’s Shi’ite Muslim clergy and some political leaders seem prepared to accept.

In remarks broadcast today Bremer told the Dubai-based Al-Arabiya television station that it could take “a year or 15 months and may take longer” to arrange an election.

In his remarks, made in English and translated by the station, Bremer cited the absence of electoral laws and voter rolls as the main obstacles to a speedy vote.

Iraq’s top Shi’ite cleric, Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Husseini al-Sistani, demanded elections to choose a legislature before the planned June 30 transfer of power from the US-led coalition to the Iraqis.

Elsewhere, insurgents fired on a US military convoy near Haswa, 25 miles south of Baghdad, apparently causing some casualties, witnesses said. The US command in Baghdad said it had no reports of the incident

The United States and UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan said a vote by the end of June was not feasible, and Bremer insisted earlier this week that the deadline will not be changed.

The Americans would prefer to hand power over to an expanded Iraqi Governing Council, the 25-member body appointed by the coalition in July.

In written remarks to questions by the German magazine Der Spiegel, al-Sistani suggested he would accept a short delay in voting but demanded UN guarantees that there will be no more postponements.

The council itself is divided on the issue.

A Kurdish leader, Jalal Talabani, has suggested a delay of seven or eight months. Younadem Kana, an Assyrian Christian member of the council, said Bremer’s estimate was based on the coalition’s assessment of the security situation and that elections could be held much sooner.

However, Mahmoud Othman, a Kurdish Sunni council member, said it would take at least a year to prepare for elections.

“I consider Bremer’s statement as rational and realistic because successful elections cannot be done in less than one year,” Othman told The Associated Press. “In my opinion, the important thing is not to have elections. The important thing is to have good results that would save us from troubles that might erupt due to badly prepared elections.”

In a further obstacle to an agreement, the Kurds have submitted proposals to the draft interim constitution, due to take effect at the end of this month, guaranteeing broad autonomy for their self-ruled region. They include maintenance of their own “Kurdistan National Guard,” parliament and tax system.

The Kurds also want guarantees that the permanent constitution due to be drafted next year will take effect in Kurdish areas only if a majority of voters there accept it. Kurdish demands have raised alarm among many Arabs over the future of Iraq as an integral state.