2010 to rank among three hottest years on record

THE UN weather agency says 2010 is “almost certain” to rank among the three hottest years on record.

The World Meteorological Organisation also says global temperatures during 2001-2010 are the highest recorded for any 10-year period since the beginning of climate records in 1850.

In data released yesterday at global climate talks in Cancun, the WMO said this year’s temperatures through October were at near-record levels. Data for November and December will be analysed in early 2011.

WMO secretary-general Michel Jarraud said there is a “significant possibility 2010 could be the warmest”.

Meanwhile prospects for a limited deal at the latest climate talks appeared to brighten with the US and China narrowing differences on a key element: how to monitor greenhouse gas emissions.

But other issues that go to the heart of a new global warming treaty — long-term commitments for cutting emissions — proved stubbornly unmoving, and out of reach for any resolution during the annual two-week conference.

Nonetheless, analysts said an understanding on measuring emissions would be an important step that could help break the long-standing deadlock on reducing pollutants that scientists say have caused global temperatures to steadily rise over recent decades.

The Cancun meeting is the first since the Copenhagen summit last December, which defied early hopes for a broad treaty prescribing emissions reductions and instead ended with a brief statement of principles that fell short of the unanimous approval required.

After a series of acrimonious meetings since then, the tone at the 193-nation Cancun conference appeared markedly improved, especially between the US and China. Over the past year they had repeatedly exchanged accusations of reneging on commitments and undermining the talks.

The ultimate objective of the talks is a treaty to replace the 1997 Kyoto Protocol, which required 37 countries and the European Union to cut emissions by 5% by 2012. The US rejected the accord, partly because it made no demands on rapidly developing countries like China and India.

This week Japan said it was not interested in negotiating an extension of the Kyoto targets, arguing it was pointless unless the world’s largest polluters also accepted binding targets.

The fate of the Kyoto Protocol is one of the most divisive issues in the negotiations, and no one expected it to be settled at the Mexican conclave. However, an agreement on measurement, reporting and verification of emissions — MRV — would be a morale booster for negotiators, although the details remain to be worked out.

The much disputed issue involves how nations account for their actions to limit emissions and to what extent they will allow other countries to review their books.

It also is only one of several elements that negotiators want to adopt as a package in Cancun that has something for everyone.

China’s chief negotiator, Su Wei, said the differences with the US over MRV “are not that huge. In general, both countries would like to promote the process”.

Barbara Finamore, the China expert for Natural Resources Defense Council, said the Chinese attitude at Cancun reflected “a sea change” in approach.