Exit polls show runoff likely for Polish presidency

EXIT polls in Poland’s presidential election last night show that the interim president and parliament speaker Bronislaw Komorowski is leading Jaroslaw Kaczynski, the brother of the president killed in a plane crash in April, but without the 50% needed for outright victory.

If the exit polls are confirmed by official results, a runoff vote will have to be held between Komorowski and Kaczynski on July 4.

An exit poll by Millward Brown SMG/KRC showed Komorowski with 45.7% of the vote and Kaczynski with 33.2%.

A second poll, by OBOP, showed 40.7% for Komorowski and 35.8% for Kaczynski. Official results are expected today.

Komorowski told his supporters at a campaign party in Warsaw that he felt “happy and fulfilled” knowing he has the “support and the trust of millions of voters in Poland.”

“In life as in football, overtime is the most difficult. Let’s not forget that and let’s mobilise all our forces for the grand finale on July 4,” he said.

Kaczynski thanked his supporters, as well as political opponents who set a constructive tone during what “is not a normal election; it’s an election which is the result of a huge catastrophe, a huge misfortune, a huge tragedy.”

Both exit polls gave third place to the centre-left candidate, Grzegorz Napieralski, with either 13.4% or 14% of the vote.

The final outcome will hinge to a large degree on where the Napieralski votes go.

Napieralski said he will travel and meet with his supporters before deciding whom to endorse.

But sociologist Ireneusz Krzeminski said that it is hard to imagine that the majority of Napieralski’s voters could vote for anyone other than Komorowski. Napieralski’s electorate tends to be liberal on social issues – supporting women’s rights, gay rights and opposing the strong role played by the church in society. That puts it closer to Komorowski’s Civic Platform, which appeals to secular and urban voters with its pro-business ethos, even though it pays little attention to ideological social issues.

President Lech Kaczynski and his wife were among 96 people killed when their plane crashed while trying to land in heavy fog in Smolensk, Russia, on April 10. The delegation included many high-ranking civilian and military leaders, and their loss provoked deep grief across the nation. Many called it the worst tragedy to strike Poland since World War II.

Komorowski is a pro-European Union, moderate member of the governing Civic Platform party. He has pledged to work closely with the government of Prime Minister Donald Tusk to adopt the euro in about five years and end the unpopular military mission in Afghanistan.