Polling shows big win a possibility

BARACK OBAMA leads in four states won by US President George W Bush in 2004 and is essentially tied in two other Republican states, according to new AP-GfK battleground polling that suggests most roads to victory are closed to John McCain.

Obama could win by a large majority. The surveys explain why Obama is hoping not just for a win, but a transcendent victory that remakes the nation’s political map. McCain is scrambling to defend states where he wouldn’t even be campaigning if the race were closer.

The polls show Obama winning among early voters, favoured on almost every issue, benefiting from the country’s sour mood and widely viewed as the winning candidate by voters in eight crucial states — Colorado, Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia. Despite this, McCain aides insist their internal polls show victory is still within reach. Indeed, polls are mere snapshots of fluid campaigns and this race has been volatile. McCain was written off prematurely last year and Obama seemed poised for victory in New Hampshire’s Democratic primary just before Hillary Rodham Clinton thumped him.

In addition, racial tensions and the numbers of late-deciding voters identified by the polls leave room for doubt, but confirm what McCain aides acknowledge privately — their chances of winning are low. The polling shows Obama leading in Ohio (7 percentage points), Nevada (12), Colorado (9) and Virginia (7) — all red states won by Bush that collectively offer 47 electoral votes. Sweeping those four, or the right combination of two or three, would almost certainly make Obama president.

It takes 270 electoral votes to win the White House. Obama can earn 252 by merely reclaiming states won by John Kerry in 2004. The polls show Obama leading in Pennsylvania with 21 votes and New Hampshire with four — the only Kerry states still in contention. Obama is also tied with McCain in North Carolina and Florida — two vote-rich states Bush carried in 2004. Florida has 27 votes and North Carolina 15.

McCain must overtake Obama in the many red states where he is trailing or tied, or take Pennsylvania, where he trails by 12, to ease the pressure.