McCain’s dilemma

FLOUNDERING presidential candidate John McCain was expected to comfortably bank the state of North Carolina, instead he is watching it vanish from his ledger.

With his image anchored to deepening financial crisis his personal stock has plummeted to its lowest point so far.

Yesterday, North Carolina and more shockingly West Virginia became the latest in the Republican Party’s portfolio to report a deficit in the polls.

It has left McCain needing a recovery of Wall Street proportions if he is to win in 24-days-time.

North Carolina has voted Republican for the past 32-years and was, at best, considered a long shot for Democrats. But a Rasmussen poll indicated the Tar Heel state’s eight electoral college votes are on the verge of changing sides.

And this one-point lead for Barack Obama embodies everything going right for his campaign. It will make for particularly troubling reading at McCain’s headquarters as the poll was taken after he cashed in some of the strongest options left in his account.

Rasmussen interviewed the 700 North Carolinians after McCain tabled his new economic strategy during Tuesday’s debate and a full week since his negative advertising campaign began in earnest and his running mate Sarah Palin debuted her visceral rally speeches.

At this point, McCain had wanted to be spending his limited funds in states that could win the election for him, not rescue him from humiliation. If McCain spends his weekend off looking at his remaining stock options he will see the report is not promising.

The economy

Report: Great news for Obama if he keeps his head down. The stock market has followed the property sector into meltdown and voters are frightened every other economic arena will be infected.

A $700 billion (€520bn) response by government failed to stop Wall Street from losing more than $2 trillion (€1.4t). About two-thirds of American voters own stock through personal savings accounts and pension plans. Voters view Obama as a steadier hand, he in turn has successfully characterised McCain as “erratic”.

But both candidates are on shaky ground with such turmoil creating a volatile electorate. Crucially, the money markets have lost faith in politicians’ ability to intervene.

Yesterday, US president George W Bush gave an address designed to calm investors, but as his comments were broadcast live the Dow Jones plummeted more than 80 points.

From the outset, McCain has tried to take a lead role in the federal government’s response, but has been thwarted by a rebellion in his own party. He did not help himself in the manner he tabled an additional $300bn package to allow the government purchase failing mortgages. Not only did McCain’s surprise plan upset economic conservatives he announced the wrong details. A day later his economic advisors were forced to correct the scheme’s intention. Obama has kept quiet and has instead deployed working-men’s favourites Joe Biden and Bill Clinton to blue collar areas to show the Democratic party understands the plight of ordinary people.

Negative campaigning

Report: Troubling for Obama, but McCain may instigate a backlash.

For the past 10 days, McCain’s campaign has pursued an approach various commentators have labelled as racist, xenophobic and rooted in scare mongering. Even within the Republican Party pundits have pointed to the high-profile “Obama is not presidential” adverts as being laden with racial undertones. However, with the economy inspiring depression television networks are looking to discuss alternative and less pressing themes.

In this vacuum the constant barrage of adverts and comments about Obama’s loose ties to his neighbour and former domestic terrorist Bill Ayers have taken hold.

The tenuous link to Ayers was aired during primary election with Hillary Clinton. However, Clinton’s approach was not as direct and did not have the financial backing to run continuous commercials tying Obama to Ayers.

In this regard Sarah Palin has been McCain’s cheerleader-in-chief with shouts of “Obama is a terrorist” rising up from supporters at her rallies.

Tactically it is designed to fire up core Republicans. However, it has also had the reverse impact of re-energising Democrats preparing to canter past the post. On Thursday, 118 new volunteers walked into Obama’s campaign office in the North Carolina town of Greensboro.

And Obama has a sizable advantage in spending ability to counter any negative diatribes.

In North Carolina he has outspent McCain by $5.2 million (€3.8m) to $750,000 and similarly in other key battlegrounds.

The polls

Report: Obama has given himself a comfortable margin of error.

There are two races in every American election the scrap for close-run states and the quest to win the support of the general population.

On both counts Obama is pulling away. This week the Gallup Daily Tracking poll put Obama support at 53%, as high as immediately after his historic acceptance speech in Denver’s Invesco Stadium.

But at a local level the picture is even rosier. Obama’s selection of Biden as running mate has helped secure the initially tentative states of Pennsylvania and Michigan and looks set to assist the delivery of Ohio, Wisconsin and possibly Indiana.

And not only has the reliably red state of North Carolina jumped onto the blue side of the ledger its near neighbours are veering in the same direction.

Virginia, once considered Obama’s best chance of an outside victory, is now reporting an 8% lead for Obama.

But it was West Virginia which yesterday made pollsters splutter on their coffee. This military-biased state was considered a Republican banker and has not been the focus of intense spending but American Research Group put Obama into an eight point lead.

What could upset Obama?

If the next three weeks continue as the last three the victory party on election night will by in Obama’s home city of Chicago.

But election watchers are wary of a traditional “October Surprise” from his past to change the direction of the campaign. And the murky world of Chicago politics is full of potential.

McCain will also have one eye on Wednesday night’s final debate hoping to pull a trick he has otherwise shown no capability of producing.

However, while the economy remains the priority the Republicans are increasingly staring at the prospect of a dark chapter in their storied history.