Scientists on the spot to predict disruptive solar storms

SCIENTISTS in the US are deadlocked over the severity of the next sunspot cycle, which could produce powerful solar storms that can disrupt communication systems on Earth.

A panel of space weather forecasters has been sifting through about three dozen predictions from 15 nations that differ widely in how intense the next solar cycle will be.

The group, run by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and funded by NASA, aims to make an official prediction in the spring.

While scientists have observed sunspots — dark, cool blemishes — on the sun’s surface since the days of Galileo, they have been unable to accurately forecast the severity of the eruptions associated with the spots. Sunspots are best known for triggering solar flares.

The debate over the next cycle, known as Solar Cycle 24, had been “passionate”, said Douglas Biesecker, a physicist at NOAA’s Space Environment Centre who heads the panel.

No clear prediction has emerged from the computer models that simulate the sun’s activity, Biesecker said during a meeting of the American Geophysical Union in San Francisco.

Predictions for the peak sunspot number range from 42 to 185.

Governments and companies rely on space weather forecasts to guard against possible failures of power grids and radio communications when solar storms explode with bursts of magnetic energy and radiation that barrel toward Earth at millions of miles an hour.