Fear and hatred set to scupper chance of peace

Gwynne Dyer says the proposal to unite Cyprus is destined to fail.

"LIFE would not be the same, and that everyone has to know," said Javier Solana, head of foreign policy for the European Union, as he contemplated a Greek-Cypriot vote against reunification of the island on the eve of Cyprus's entry into the EU on May 1.

The leader writer in the Cyprus Mail, the island's English-language daily, was less diplomatic: "In the highly likely event that the No vote wins, on May 1 we will be the first police state to become a full member of the EU....We are witnessing the state engaging in open suppression of information, blatant lies, and the imposition of its views on the citizens."

The UN-backed deal for the creation of a federal government in Cyprus, divided between hostile Greek and Turkish-speaking communities since 1974, is, in the words of UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan, "the best and fairest chance of peace, prosperity and stability that is ever likely to be on offer."

Neither side gets everything it wants, but both sides get a lot. In the referendum this Saturday, however, the Greek-Cypriots will probably vote No.

The Turkish-Cypriots will vote Yes to reunification but that won't help them if the Greek-speakers vote No, because only the government on the Greek side of the Green Line has international recognition. It will join the EU on May 1 anyway, while the Turkish-speakers languish in poverty north of the barbed wire and trenches that still divide the island. It doesn't seem reasonable, but then not much of Cyprus's recent history is.

Greek-Cypriots never fully accepted that the 18% Turkish-speaking minority had a right to be there, so the power-sharing constitution that Britain left behind in 1960 never worked. By 1964, Turkish-Cypriots were living in besieged enclaves and in 1974 the same EOKA terrorists who had waged a guerilla war against the British in the 1950s carried out a coup aimed at achieving 'enosis' (union with Greece). Turkey invaded to stop it, and all the Turkish-Cypriots fled north, 200,000 Greek-Cypriots fled south, and 37% of the island's land was in Turkish hands.

There it has stuck for 30 years. The Greek south has prospered, while the so-called Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, recognised only by Turkey, has sunk deeper into isolation and poverty.

So Turkish-Cypriots are eager to reunify the island, join the EU, and enjoy free movement and prosperity while the Greek-Cypriots, guaranteed entry to the EU, don't feel compelled to be reasonable.

Tassos Papadopoulos, the new Greek-Cypriot president elected in February, is the hardest of nationalist hardliners. He was a leading EOKA member in the 1950s, and in the 1960s he was second-in-command of the Akrotiras organisation, whose goal was to rid the island of Turkish-Cypriots.

In a tearful speech on April 7, Papadopoulos warned that the Turkish government could never be trusted and told Greek-Cypriots to reject the deal and EU spokesmen trying to explain the deal are being kept off Cypriot television. It's working: opinion polls predict that about two-thirds of Turkish-Cypriots will vote Yes to the deal, but two-thirds of Greek-Cypriots will vote No. Former Cypriot president George Vassiliou said: "People need correct information about the details of the plan, but they're not getting it. The media are giving out half-truths and misleading interpretations....The current mood is one of nationalist hysteria, but when people wake up, it will be a painful reckoning."

It will, but not just for the Greek-Cypriots, who will lose $2 billion in promised aid and probably never see their country reunited. Above all, Turkey and Europe will lose: the Greek-Cypriot government, once it becomes an EU member in May, will very likely use its veto to prevent Turkey from beginning entry negotiations, promised for next year, in an attempt to blackmail everybody into changing the deal.

So Europe will show itself to be anti-Muslim, and the brave attempt by Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan to make his country a full European-style democracy will be punished by disillusioned Turkish voters. If the EU had any guts, it would respond to a Greek-Cypriot No vote by suspending the island's entry until they rethink their answer. But I wouldn't hold my breath.