EU enlargement remains a tricky question

THE DEBATE on the future of Europe is slowly but definitely gathering pace, with foreign ministers agreeing to hold a two-day meeting on the topic at the end of May.

The issues are being clarified gradually, national governments making statements about their bottom line and gradually galvanising support or opposition for it.

As frequently happens with big issues in the EU, the phrase being used for the debate - the future of Europe - is off-putting. Basically it boils down to whether the constitution will become a reality.

This document lays out the framework for much of how things happen and will happen in the future in the Union. Fourteen countries have ratified it, with Estonia and Finland saying they will do so later in the summer. Sweden has delayed its ratification in parliament and six members, including Ireland and Britain, have delayed their referenda.

But the countries setting the debate are the two that have rejected it, France and the Netherlands. They each identified a few reasons why their citizens rejected it, and none of them were related to the constitution.

Two of these issues, the services directive and the Union’s budget, have been partially dealt with, leaving the major question of enlargement.

The constitution did not address the issue of who can become a member and how many members there should be. But it has now become crucial to the debate.

The area has been narrowed a little with general agreement that Bulgaria and Romania must be admitted to membership. The only question is whether this will happen in 2007 or 2008. Few believe either country is fully ready for membership, but feel that since they have been given so many reassurances and they are continuing to make efforts to reform, they must be admitted.

Negotiations have begun also with Croatia, which has enough allies to ensure this former member of Yugoslavia will become a member too. Bosnia’s development as a democratic country is so closely tied up with the EU that its membership, too, is almost a forgone conclusion, and then, who can leave out Serbia and Montenegro.

The country that concentrates minds most is Turkey with negotiations having begun but many countries not convinced it belongs in the EU. The reasons are many. Some are simple, such as that most of Turkey is not in Europe, but most objections are complex and related to its Islamic culture.

The Dutch parliament was debating the issue yesterday. Foreign Minister Bernard Bot has proposed setting certain new ground rules that could prove to be a solution to at least some of the concerns.

With Poland pushing for membership for Ukraine, and Albania a natural addition once the Balkans are in, the foreign ministers are likely to avoid discussion on what countries should be in or out for the future.

Instead it is likely that they will opt to raise the bar as suggested by the Dutch and keep the EU’s options open by insisting the Union must be capable of absorbing the new members.