Climate change ‘a greater risk than thought’
The British Government report collates evidence presented at a conference in Britain on climate change last year.
It says scientists now have “greater clarity and reduced uncertainty” about the impacts of climate change.
Over the next century, global warming is expected to raise ocean levels, intensify storms, spread disease to new areas and shift climate zones.
The UN-backed Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change says temperatures rose by about one degree Celsius during the 20th century. Computer models predict increases of between 2.5 and 10.4 degrees by 2100, depending on how much is done to limit greenhouse gas emissions.
Scientists have warned of climatic “tipping points” such as the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets melting and the Gulf Stream shutting down.
The research also highlights a danger that the climate could become caught in a “negative feedback” loop where the pace of change accelerates out of control.
Because ice reflects the sun’s radiation whereas water absorbs it, it is thought temperatures may begin rising more sharply as the surface covered by ice reduces.
Some scientists are concerned that increasing volumes of cooler water could quickly disrupt the Gulf Stream, creating Arctic conditions. The idea was dramatically explored in Hollywood blockbuster The Day After Tomorrow.
Head of the British Antarctic Survey Chris Rapley said the huge west Antarctic ice sheet may be starting to disintegrate, an event that could raise sea levels 16 feet.
British Prime Minister Tony Blair’s vow to put climate change at the centre of the international agenda during Britain’s leadership of the G8 and the EU last year met with limited success. He was unable to overcome the Bush administration’s antipathy to the Kyoto climate-change accord - rejected by the US Government on the grounds it would damage the economy.
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