Iraq heading for civil war, warns US memo

OCCUPIED Iraq is rife with corruption, instability and could be heading toward a civil war, according to a leaked coalition memo published yesterday.

The secret document, written last month by a US Government official, warns that ordinary Iraqis are arming themselves, fearing civil conflict is approaching.

The Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA) is condemned in the memo for mismanagement and lacking clear strategies.

The memo was obtained by award-winning former Washington Post reporter Jason Vest, and syndicated to parts of the US media.

Last week, British Prime Minister Tony Blair and US President George W Bush reaffirmed their commitment to bring democracy to war-torn Iraq.

But serious errors made in the coalition's administration of post-Saddam Iraq have severely hampered efforts to achieve that goal, the memo said.

Mr Vest said the memo was written by an official who had always supported regime change in Iraq. It was drawn up for a superior in Baghdad and circulated to CPA officials.

In it, the official writes that the CPA "handle(s) an issue like six-year-olds play soccer: Someone kicks the ball and one hundred people chase after it hoping to be noticed, without a care as to what happens on the field".

While there is a positive picture of thriving businesses on the streets of a Baghdad, "the progress evidently happens despite us rather than because of us", the memo says.

It adds: "Frequent explosions, many of which are not reported in the mainstream media, are a constant reminder of uncertainty".

Most disturbing in the memo is the warning that people in Baghdad are preparing for civil war.

It says: "Baghdadis have an uneasy sense that they are heading towards civil war.

"Sunnis, Shias, and Kurd professionals say that they themselves, friends, and associates are buying weapons fearing for the future."

Iraqi police, meanwhile, "remain too fearful to enforce regulations", but they are making money by selling their US-supplied weapons.

"CPA is ironically driving the weapons market," the memo says.

"Iraqi police sell their US-supplied weapons on the black market; they are promptly re-supplied."

The memo goes on that "the trigger for a civil war" would come from "deeper conflicts that revolve around patronage and absolutism" rather than a single, isolated incident.

The memo also attacks "cronyism" and nepotism within the US-appointed Governing Council.

"In retrospect, both for political and organisational reasons, the decision to allow the Governing Council to pick 25 ministers did the greatest damage.

"Not only did we endorse nepotism, with men choosing their sons and brothers-in-law; but we also failed to use our prerogative to shape a system that would work ... Our failure to promote accountability has hurt us."

The CPA is meanwhile "handicapped by (its) security bubble" in Baghdad. Many Iraqis are deterred from talking to coalition troops due to fear of later reprisals from their countrymen and because the soldiers and officials are unapproachable.

"Even those willing to talk to Americans think twice, since American officials create a spectacle of themselves, with convoys, flak jackets, fancy SUVs," the memo says.

Vest, who said he obtained the document from a western intelligence official, is the senior correspondent for The American Prospect.