If the US stays too long, growing disquiet could revive the Ba’ath Party

THE Ba’ath Party ruled Iraq well before Iraqi President Saddam Hussein seized full control and it is likely to haunt Iraqi politics long after he disappears.

Most experts think a new regime will depend heavily at lower levels on former Ba'athists.

The Arab Ba'ath Socialist Party gained a totalitarian grip over nearly all aspects of Iraqi society since its first brief lurch to power in 1963 and its final takeover in 1968.

Saddam who reportedly got his start in the party as a clandestine killer - was a force behind the scenes starting in the late 1960s but did not formally grab control until 1979.

American officials say uprooting the Ba'ath is a major goal of their war against Saddam's regime. But that may not be easy. The top ranks of the bureaucracy, the military and schools are dominated by Ba'ath loyalists and generations have been indoctrinated with the party's theory of Arab supremacy.

Lower-level members have managed the institutions of government on a day-to-day basis. "A lot of people in the Ba'ath could emerge in one way or another as political players in the country," said David Mack, vice president of the Washington-based Middle East Institute, a think tank that includes many former US diplomats. As many as 1.5 million of Iraq's 24 million people once belonged to the party in some way. But only about 25,000 to 50,000 were full-fledged members the sort of elite targeted by those who want to end the party's influence. The party was founded in Syria in 1943 and spread around the Arab world, promoting Arab superiority and Arab unity with a violent, Soviet-style party structure.

It took power in Syria in 1963 and created branches in many Arab countries, bitterly squabbling both with established governments and rival, communist revolutionaries.

"In the 1970s when they had a lot of money, it was fairly attractive. It attracted a lot of people who overlooked the repressive factor. It was a modernising party, secular," said historian Phebe Marr, a specialist on Iraq.

After 34 years of brutality, the attraction long ago faded.

Many experts say that a lengthy or heavy-handed US rule over Iraq will inflame the sort of nationalist passions that helped the Ba'ath come to power.

Historian Rashid Khalidi of the University of Chicago said if the US stays too long in Iraq, growing disquiet could revive the Ba'ath Party.