Ratzinger ahead as cardinals prepare for papal vote
The German theologian, the Vatican's doctrinal watchdog for 23 years, is the front-runner, while moderates were considering a symbolic candidacy for Cardinal Carlo Maria Martini, the former archbishop of Milan, the official said.
But this was only the line-up for the first round of voting, often a formality gauging strengths of different camps, rather than a sign of who might end up as pope. Voting conclaves can last several days.
In an unexpected move, Cardinal Ratzinger published a book in Germany yesterday arguing that Europe must reclaim its Christian heritage. Open campaigning for the papacy is frowned upon and it was not clear what effect the book would have.
"Ratzinger is looking strong but it's still far from clear who will emerge and how the voting will go," said the official who requested anonymity. The conclave begins next Monday and a two-thirds majority 77 out of 115 votes is needed to win.
Italian newspapers reported that between 40 and 50 cardinals had signalled support for Cardinal Ratzinger in private pre-conclave meetings this week.
A conservative campaign to rapidly declare John Paul a saint also appeared to work in Cardinal Ratzinger's favour because of his close ties to the former Pontiff.
"Ratzinger's supporters have stepped up their efforts to elect him quickly," wrote Rome daily La Repubblica.
Although he was John Paul's closest aide and is dean of the College of Cardinals due to elect the next pontiff, Cardinal Ratzinger is not an obvious candidate because of his age he turns 78 on Saturday and the polarising role he has played.
Cardinal Ratzinger has come down hard on theologians who strayed from his strict doctrinal line and alienated other Christian denominations by saying they were not real churches.
Both La Repubblica and Corriere della Sera newspapers reported that two other powerful German cardinals, Karl Lehmann of Mainz and Vatican-based Walter Kasper, were strongly against him. Both have clashed publicly with Cardinal Ratzinger in the past.
The official said moderates were lining up temporarily behind a symbolic candidacy for Cardinal Martini, who was their favourite for years until he resigned as Milan archbishop in 2002.
While Cardinal Martini, 78 and ailing, has signalled he does not want the job, a strong showing for him in the first round could indicate the strength of moderate cardinals and help rally support behind a candidate more acceptable to them.
"The moderates will have to get their act together fast because about half the cardinals seem undecided and could go along with whoever looks like a winner," the official said.
The cardinals agreed last week not to talk to the media during the pre-conclave period but information is often leaked to Italian journalists with close ties to the Vatican.
Their media are also favoured because most cardinals speak Italian.
The excerpts from Cardinal Ratzinger's book Values in Times of Upheaval, published by Munich's Sueddeutsche Zeitung daily, did not appear formally to break that vow of silence as they were most likely written before Pope John Paul died on April 2.
"Europe needs to accept itself anew ... if it is to survive," wrote Cardinal Ratzinger, a former archbishop of Munich.
"In the hour of its greatest success, Europe seems to have become empty inside, paralysed by a life-threatening crisis to its health and dependent on transplants," he wrote, referring to the Continent's low birthrate and need for immigrant labour.
He also criticised the collapse of traditional families and the drive to legalise gay marriage, a trend which meant that "the entire moral history of mankind is being left behind".
He rapped Western society for what he said was its correct decision to make criticism of Islam or Judaism a taboo but said it was a mistake to allow Christianity to be freely ridiculed and condemned.
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