‘Make changes or Africa will starve for next 20 years’

MORE than 38.3 million children will suffer from malnutrition over the next 20 years unless major changes in trade and aid policies are made, a research institute has warned.

Tens of millions of Africans will continue to go hungry if trends continue, and current policies will do little to improve long-term prospects, the International Food Policy Research Institute predicted in a report.

With millions already suffering from severe food shortages in the semi-arid lands along the Sahara, the report said the entire continent needed at least €250 billion in new investments to reduce hunger.

Such an investment would reduce the number of malnourished children in sub-Saharan Africa to 10 million, said Mark Rosegrant, the lead author of the report said. He added that the doubling of assistance by the world’s wealthiest countries and a promise by African leaders to double the investment in agriculture would be beneficial.

“Improved crop, land and water management must be supported,” he said. “It is essential there must be continued reform in macroeconomic policies.”

The Washington-based institute’s researchers used computer modelling to analyse the effect of different trade, aid and agricultural policies to prepare a forecast for the next 20 years, depending on steps taken at the national and international level.

“Many of the challenges facing Africa’s agricultural sector stem from a few root causes, including poor political and economic governance in many African countries, inadequate funding for the agricultural sector, poor water resources management, and neglect of research and development,” the report said.

If there are no significant changes in the current policies, there will only be a small reduction in the percentage of malnourished children in sub-Saharan Africa from 32.8% to 28.2%. But when population growth is considered, the total number of hungry children will rise from 32.7 million to 38.3 million.

Adopting a pessimistic scenario, which factors in the effects of HIV/Aids and the declining foreign investment in African countries, the institute predicted that the number of malnourished children in sub-Saharan Africa would rise to 55.1 million.

Researchers said the only way to meet the United Nations Millennium Development Goals of cutting the number of hungry in half by 2015 would be through reforming trade policies, significant financial investments, increased agricultural research and extension services, as well as better crop, land and water management.

Full trade liberalisation alone could inject an additional e4bn a year into Africa’s economy, Mr Rosegrant said.

Ensuring the empowerment of women should also be a priority, he added.