France v Ireland - the three possible outcomes for World Cup destiny

The Girls in Green earned a memorbale win over the Dutch in Cork on Friday night.

BELIEF: Katie McCabe of Republic of Ireland, 11, talks to her teammates after the 2027 FIFA Women’s World Cup Qualifier against the Netherlands at SuperValu Páirc Uí Chaoimh. Pic: Stephen McCarthy/Sportsfile

Ireland have already broken new ground in the Women’s World Cup qualifiers and can cement it by shocking the French in Grenoble on Tuesday.

Here’s the lowdown on the history makers.

Since Uefa introduced the Nations League system into the women’s game in late 2023, no team promoted from League A to League B has avoided relegation. That was until Ireland dodged it with plenty to spare.

Additionally, no promoted team had won two games in League A.

Friday’s victory over Netherlands before a raucous crowd of 12,569 at Pairc Uí Chaoimh was their third.

Ireland are the outliers of a tiered system, exemplified by them defying their 21st place in Fifa’s rankings to beat the Dutch, residing just inside the top 10.

In what was considered a campaign to avoid finishing last, Ireland were confirmed third place before even kicking a ball on Friday.

Back-to-back victories over Poland in April conquered that first battle as the Poles had no margin of error when hosting the French in Gdansk.

What third does is guarantee Ireland seeding through the playoff phase that kicks off in October.

They will have their second leg of the semi-final against a team from League C at home and will again be at Lansdowne Road in the return leg of the final.

Arising from results in Friday’s penultimate series of League A2 fixtures, Ireland could end the regulation group on Tuesday night in one of first, second or third place.

Uefa don’t make things straightforward, meaning some scenarios are clearer than others as the last games loom.

Crucially, Ireland have first-choice players Denise O’Sullivan and Emily Murphy back from suspension for the Gallic shootout.

We take a look at what each outcome means for Ireland when they take on the sixth-best team in the world at the 20.068-capacity Stade des Alpes (9pm French time, 8pm Irish).

Ireland beat France, by any score:

Should the second scalp in four days be taken, Carla Ward’s side book a direct route to next year’s World Cup in Brazil. Only four nations do so without navigating the playoffs, underlining the feat within their grasp.

Unlikely as that seems against a French side packed with quality from the top clubs across Europe including Chelsea, Real Madrid and Lyon, defeating a Dutch side who beat the French in April will fill the Irish with belief.

As Ireland leapfrogged the Dutch on Friday, even a win for them in the simultaneous game being held in Almelo against Poland won’t be enough to prevent the Irish lording it at the summit.

Ireland draw with France:

This outcome would maintain the one-point buffer France enjoys over the Irish but likely see Ward’s slip back to third spot.

Poland’s sole point was accrued in the group opener back in April against the Dutch but they’ve lost four games in a row to confirm their relegation back to League B. Netherlands will be out to atone for Friday’s slip-up. If there’s another draw between those nations, Ireland’s runners-up berth is consolidated.

Regardless of what happens in the other game, holding the aristocrats of France to a draw in their backyard would constitute a major confidence-booster for Ireland ahead of the playoffs.

Ireland lose to France:

That will, in all probability, lead to the natural predictable order of France, Netherlands and Ireland.

France cannot be caught while the Dutch would need to beat Poland to snaffle second spot because Ireland hold the advantage on goals scored if they were to finish level on points.

Playoff scenarios:

Should the utopian direct qualification dream not come to pass, Ireland will be in the draw for the playoffs on Wednesday fortnight, June 24.

One conclusion from an extremely convoluted system to deduce is that finishing second is identical to third when it comes to seeding in the draw.

In essence, Ireland will be resounding favourites to prevail in the semi-final against a team from League C. As it stands, with Tuesday’s final games to be played, they could be paired against Bosnia-Herzegovina, Estonia, Croatia, Kosovo, Hungary, Azerbaijan, Greece, Romania, Kazakhstan and possibly Belarus.

All nations Ireland are seeded above and have the upperhand in the historical meetings, where applicable.

The final will be against the winner of a tie between a League B second/third place team and League A last team/League B winner.

Those finals will produce eight winners, of which seven progress to the World Cup. The lowest seeded of the victors must confront an Intercontinental group but Ireland’s rising seeds ensures they’ll avoid that extra layer.