Arsenal roll dice with this season to ensure future is not a gamble

Arsenal will have around €200m to spend this summer. If they land all their transfer targets in the summer and sweep all before them next season they may yet have the last laugh.

After losing to Newcastle in the Carabao Cup semi-final, Arsenal head to Dubai for a warm weather winter training break. Pic: AP Photo/Jon Super

NO Wembley final for Arsenal next month. And, after coming here running on empty and a misfiring first leg of missed opportunities in London last month, no surprise. That applies in equal measure to the loyal, hopeful supporters here, manager Mikel Arteta, the Arsenal hierarchy and their players, who will today be checking into their luxurious Dubai accommodation for a much-needed warm weather winter training break.

Maybe they should have gone a day or two early - ideally in the glow of Sunday’s five-goal win over Manchester City - and saved themselves this humiliation. If only they had a new goalscoring signing to bed in while they are away to take the edge off. The irony that Arteta’s NO.1 transfer target Alexander Isak’s attacking prowess was effectively the difference between the two sides in both legs too was palpable. With Brazil attacker Gabriel Martinelli going off before half-time with what looked like a hamstring problem, Arsenal’s winter window failures could be even more damaging.

Newcastle are a step nearer their first trophy in 70 years and celebrated accordingly in deafening fashion, as they look forward to a Wembley way invasion in March.

Arsenal’s priorities, meanwhile, are the even more challenging two-pronged task of catching Liverpool at the top of the Premier League table and negotiating the three two-legged rounds of Champions League football they would need to overcome to reach May’s final in Munich, the scene of their quarter-final demise last season.

The fact they did not sign a striker after wasting so many golden chances in the first leg and then when forward Gabriel Jesus was ruled out for the season a few days later should remain a concern. If they hit all their targets in the summer and sweep all before them next season they might yet have the last laugh.

Even then they will first have to answer their critics at the end of this season should they fail to do the business. Had captain Martin Odegaard not missed two excellent opportunities early on here last night it might have been a different story too. Such are the margins.

For the fact they can afford a week of exotic sun while their rivals remain at the grizzled grindstone of domestic and European football is because they faltered in front of goal in the FA Cup at home to Manchester United and now have only two pieces of silverware to play for this season. The League Cup final against Liverpool or Tottenham would have been, most neutrals will argue, an unexpected bonus as few gave them a chance of overturning a two-goal first-leg deficit in this scintillating semi-final.

Had they got back at Wembley for the first time since winning the FA Cup Final in 2020 they would have had around a 50-50 chance of winning on the day. Their statistical chances of winning another trophy this season are even slimmer.

Winning the title and reaching the Champions League final might seem fanciful scenarios, but they are deadly serious that this could still be their season even with an already under-strength squad. That is the enormous gamble Arsenal have taken when they ostensibly still have so much to play for.

Maybe the Arsenal moneymen are keeping their powder dry as they follow the data. They are on their longest run without defeat under Arteta in the league - unbeaten in 14 matches and are the country’s form team. Even so, they have only a 9.8% chance of winning the title according to the regularly reliable Opta supercomputer. Is that a good enough percentage to warrant splashing out a couple of hundred million on tentative targets in January? Not if you are serious about the long-term development of the club.

They will have around €200m to spend this summer, a quarter of which is already earmarked for Spanish midfielder Martin Zubimendi. If it takes the rest or more to get Isak away from Newcastle it will be a huge two steps forward.

Only the need to comply with financial regulations could feasibly lead to Newcastle selling their Super Swede, but Arsenal will try. Leipzig’s Benjamin Sesko will be targeted too.

In the meantime, Arteta will be hoping the magic of the middle east, some sunshine and over-priced salty steak will keep his side competitive for the remainder of this season. It is, after all, just a few days since they swept aside City and produced their peak performance of the season. The problem here on Tyneside is that Newcastle manager has Arteta’s number and set his side up superbly to absorb the goal chasing Gunners and shoot them down on the counter attack. Maybe it would not have been so painful for Arsenal had their weekend win not raised hopes to an unrealistic level.

Either way, their supporters made a hell of a racket getting behind the players even after all was long lost up here. Like Arteta and the players they have to write this one off and get back on the front foot. Talisman Bukayo Saka will return next month, key defender Ben White too and in teenagers Myles Lewis-Skelly and Ethan Nwaneri they have two of the best young players in the Premier League. After humiliating nights such as this that will be hard for the youngsters and club’s supporters to see, but it is what Arteta should focus on after applying a good dose of suncream.