Premier League title race analysis: Manchester City favourites after dream weekend

Here’s a polling day guide to help you decide who wins it from here with six games to go.

Manchester City manager Pep Guardiola before the Premier League match at Selhurst Park, London. Picture date: Saturday April 6, 2024. PA Photo. See PA story SOCCER Palace. Photo credit should read: Adam Davy/PA Wire.

City top of the league and top of the polls after day of title drama.

If the Premier League was decided by election, then Liverpool have left themselves requiring a swing in fortunes to win the title - and Arsenal badly fluffed a chance to win over ‘undecided’ voters on this latest day of hustings, which left Manchester City feeling on course for another term as champions.

Liverpool’s shock defeat against Crystal Palace has raised significant doubts about their ability to deliver the dream finale to Jurgen Klopp’s remarkable premiership at Anfield.

Especially coming on the back of an even more depressing 3-0 Europa League defeat at home to Atalanta.

Meanwhile Arsenal slumped to a 2-0 defeat against Aston Villa as they saw their title dream punctured, failing to take back top spot from Manchester City.

We shouldn't forget, however, that only two points separate the top three, who have all played 32 games with six more to go.

So, although this was City's dream day, it’s still easier to predict general elections on the horizon in the USA, UK and Ireland than it is to work out who will be champions in May.

But if you had to vote now for who wins the Premier League, who would be election night favourites?

Here’s a polling day guide to help you decide:

Who is the front runner?

Even when Arsenal were top of the table, they probably didn’t lead in the polls. So, this weekend has only strengthened the opinion of many that Manchester City remain favourites to hold onto their trophy.

There’s a feeling that City have the experience to produce a perfect run-in and stay calm when the pressure cranks up. Something Arsenal couldn’t do against an impressive Villa.

With Erling Haaland back on target in Saturday’s 5-1 victory over Luton, there’s growing optimism in the east side of Manchester that the trophy will be staying put at the Etihad.

It was, after all, his 20th Premier League goal of the season.

Who needs to convince the voters?

It’s still Arsenal.

An age-old reputation for having a soft underbelly and a weak mentality has been slowly eroded this season, but it can be hard to shake. Old foes such as Gary Neville have changed their minds during the course of the campaign, but a frustrating result against Villa will bring all doubts back.

The neutrals need convincing that Arsenal won’t buckle again. Especially with a trip to North London rivals Tottenham still to come on April 28.

What are the chances of a landslide?

Until this weekend, you would have said ‘pretty minimal’. But with Arsenal and Liverpool both losing, and City winning 5-1, now we’re not so sure.

The table, with City ahead by two points, now looks ominous; and the gap could grow.

Landslide? Probably not. But the odds are in favour of a Manchester City ‘hold’.

Who gets a vote of confidence?

It’s Manchester City.

Having endured a wobbly March, they have won all three of their Premier League games in April so far, scoring 13 goals; so the signs for their opponents are ominous – especially given this weekend’s slip-ups.

Who gets a vote of no confidence?

Arsenal will feel deflated but it has to be Liverpool.

Sunday’s defeat against Palace came on the heels of a draw at Old Trafford, in which they needed a late Mo Salah penalty to save them from defeat. There was also a rather uncomfortable home victory over lowly Sheffield United at Anfield in April, in which the Blades were level until the 76th minute.

All this against a background of growing fan unrest about an increase in ticket prices. Something doesn’t feel right on Merseyside.

Arsenal’s defeat to Villa will hurt - and knock confidence. But we won’t know until they play next, at Wolves next Saturday, how badly.

Who’s got the most energy for the campaign trail?

That’s a question which isn’t easy to answer – because energy in football comes from momentum and winning matches. Liverpool and Arsenal have just lost that momentum, City have rediscovered theirs.

But City’s Champions League campaign adds extra pressure, with midfielder Rodri recently admitting he needs a rest. City are also the only team that will have to play a match midweek between the two final weekends of the season – at Tottenham on Tuesday May 14.

Does that give Arsenal or Liverpool a bit of hope?

What’s the prediction?

With the adrenalin of another thrilling title weekend still flowing, the obvious answer is Manchester City must now be strong favourites.

But we shouldn’t forget that there are still only three points separating the top three teams; and there may be further twists and turns to come.

We’ll need to review the exit polls after the penultimate weekend of the season when City go to Fulham on the Saturday, Arsenal are at Manchester United on the Sunday and Liverpool go to Villa Park on the Monday.

By contrast, all three are at home on the final day, all kicking off at 4pm. Arsenal face Everton, Liverpool take on Wolves and City host West Ham.

When it comes to who lifts the trophy, it’s still up for grabs. But if you based it all on votes right now, it’s City all the way.