Still room for a surprise as season edges to intriguing finale

Five days from the Champions League showdown in Berlin there is a slight sense of ‘so what?’ about the climax to the season.

The sides that were destined to win titles have indeed won them. As in England, the outcome in Germany, France, Italy and Spain has seemed inevitable for weeks if not months. The rich have been rewarded, the outsiders have fallen by the wayside. Gallant losers, some of them, but still losers.

Yet look closer and the season has been a lot more competitive than that, with the exception of the Bundesliga where Bayern Munich looked certainties from the moment seven months before hostilities started when they captured Robert Lewandowski from Borussia Dortmund without firing a shot.

In France, Paris Saint-Germain had to battle against both Marseille and Lyon, as well as Monaco, in a campaign that turned out to be far less predictable than expected.

In Spain, Real Madrid put together the longest winning run ever seen in a top European league. Before the turn of the year the likely also-rans seemed to be Barcelona.

And in Italy most people expected that Juventus would be under serious pressure because of the change of manager.

The contrast between Italy and Spain is remarkable, and it makes the European final next Saturday even more intriguing.

La Liga now looks like not two but three separate leagues. The Big Two as ever have their own duel. Beneath them there is a very tough competition for third and fourth between Atletico, Valencia and Sevilla. And then come the rest.

By contrast, the traditional powerhouse of Serie A, Milan, has been totally eclipsed.

For the first time neither Milan nor Inter will play in Europe next season, and the balance of forces has tilted to such an extent that both Genoa clubs as well as the two Roman sides have finished ahead of them.

Juventus have finished so far ahead of the pack that it’s tempting to discount Serie A as a serious competition. But that would be underrate Massimo Allegro and his players.

Juventus have developed into the strongest Italian club side for a decade. Inter won the treble, but they won it with a foreign manager and a side composed almost entirely of foreign players.

Juventus have won their fourth consecutive title with a group that genuinely represents the country, in much the same way that Barcelona are a Spanish (or Catalan) side, even if their success now depends on three dazzling foreigners.

Dazzling attack against dour defence will no doubt be the theme of the build-up to the Champions League final, and on one level that’s obviously right.

Barcelona and Real Madrid together have scored 238 league goals this season. Juventus and Roma have managed just 126. Yet Serie A ended in an explosion of goals on Sunday, 47 in all, culminating in a late-night fight to the death between Napoli and Lazio for the third Champions League qualifying place. It was a classic end-to-end thriller, littered with errors, finishing with drama and heartbreak, like a Premier League decider transplanted to Naples.

Nostalgics could even appreciate the sight of Rafa Benitez almost bringing a side back from the brink. Napoli were 2-0 down at half-time and came back to 2-2 before missing a penalty and conceding twice in the last seven minutes.

The difference between Juventus and the rest is their consistency and their balance. Twelve months ago they finished with over 100 points, 33 wins and just two defeats. This time they have drawn six more games, but still only lost three.

Buffon, Bonucci and Chiellini – the BBC as the Italian journalists call them – are a tremendous unit. They have conceded just 47 league goals,over two seasons.

Add players with the tenacity and technique of Antonio Marchisio, Paul Pogba and Arturo Vidal in midfield and Barcelona’s attacking superiority seems less overwhelming.

Marchisio and Pogba have both suffered injuries over the past few months, but both are fit.

The Juventus players are more rested than their opponents, and at the end of a long season that could become an important advantage.

For all the statistics, however, Barcelona have Lionel Messi. And Messi taking on the Juventus defence makes next Saturday night a definite date for the diary.