Expectations weigh heavily on United
Although United’s rivalry with Liverpool has always been far sharper, their home result against the men from Goodison has been a pretty reliable indication of the team’s title potential. Of course, it has been a largely impressive record — in 22 years of Premier League football, United have won 16 of the home games against Everton, scoring 45 goals — but it is the years in which they failed to win that make more interesting analysis.
Last year’s 1-0 defeat for instance, secured by a late goal from Bryan Oviedo, was the start of a downward spiral that eventually cost David Moyes his job. The ignominy of losing against his former club, and being booed by the away fans, was followed by a 1-0 home reverse against Newcastle United — the first time United had lost back-to-back home games since 2001-02. Within four months, he was on his way out of Old Trafford as United went on to finish seventh in the table, their worst placing in Premier League history.
A 4-4 draw against Everton in 2012 (in which late goals from Jelevic and Pienaar stunned the home crowd) had almost as painful consequences.. Those dropped points were followed by a 1-0 defeat in a derby disaster at Manchester City and saw Alex Ferguson’s men ultimately miss out on the title to their bitter rivals.
In 2005-06, a 1-1 draw (McFadden for Everton, Giggs for United) came in a season in which United again stuttered — finishing second behind Chelsea — while the season before, an unsatisfactory goalless draw did little to help their championship hopes as Jose Mourinho’s men finished top, with United down in third. By contrast, in each of their recent title-winning seasons — 2006-07, 2007-08, 2008-09, 2010-11 and 2012-13 — United’s overall record included a home win over Everton.
Of course there is always an exception that proves the rule. A shock 3-0 home defeat in 1992-3 — the year that ended with United winning the title for the first time in 26 years — gives van Gaal hope that anything is achievable, no matter what the result at Old Trafford on Sunday. But let’s be honest; winning the title this time is, even if van Gaal refuses to admit it, not really on the agenda as United concentrate, following a period of rebuilding likely to continue in the January transfer market, on returning to Europe in 2015-16 and on regaining the air of invincibility that once acted as a force field around Old Trafford.
Nevertheless, there will be significant scrutiny of United’s performance against Everton this weekend to see exactly how far they have come since Moyes was sacked and Van Gaal appointed; not least because, unlike their rivals, they have had a full seven days to prepare in Champions League and Europa League week.
So far, you have to say, United’s campaign has been a mixed bag. The performances of newly-named player of the month, Angel Di Maria, since arriving from Real Madrid have been encouraging — his goal at Leicester in particular was exquisite — and some of the old swagger seems to be returning, particularly at Old Trafford where convincing victories over QPR and West Ham appear to have United on a bounce.
But the lows of that bounce have been as alarming as the highs have been encouraging. The way United gave away a two-goal lead to lose 5-3 at Leicester was even more painful than a heavy defeat at MK Dons in the League Cup, and Rooney’s sending off against the Hammers — he misses out on facing his former side on Sunday as he begins a three-match ban — led some critics to suggest he is failing to deal with the pressure being captain.
Perhaps most worrying of all, however, has been the lack of leadership in defence following the departure of Nemanja Vidic, Rio Ferdinand and Patrice Evra. Nine goals conceded already in the league is testament to that. Add in a growing injury list that reached double figures when Ander Herrera was ruled out of Sunday’s game with a fractured rib, plus a relatively slow start for big-name signing Radamel Falcao (especially when juxtaposed with the impact Danny Welbeck has made at Arsenal since being allowed to leave) and you can see the size of the task ahead is daunting.
Not that Everton arrive at Old Trafford in top form either. Manager Roberto Martinez appears to be suffering ‘second season syndrome’, with his side in 15th place with only six points, eight places behind United who have collected eight points.
Everton’s struggles should provide United with extra focus tomorrow, as should the sight of Alex Ferguson parading around his old stomping ground — the former United manager is expected to step foot on the Old Trafford pitch for the first time since addressing his farewell game in May 2013, this time to unveil Ji-Sung Park as a new United ambassador.
For Moyes, that kind of scenario may well have created a difficult situation, guaranteeing further headlines comparing his unfortunate record to that of his predecessor. But for the more experienced Van Gaal, it will be of little consequence, and that is just one of the reasons why United fans have greater cause for optimism this season than last. The Dutchman has already instigated a style of football that will earn him far more patience from the home crowd than Moyes was afforded; and, of course, he has also been backed in the transfer market in a way that his predecessor was not.
Reports this week suggest Van Gaal has utilised the extra training time a European week has brought him, instigating double sessions and extra one-touch training drills at Carrington, as well as working on the defensive aspects of United’s game that have been so uncomfortable in recent weeks. With Phil Jones, Johnny Evans and Chris Smalling all injured — and Tyler Blackett suspended — he is limited in terms of selection, however, meaning youth teamer Paddy McNair is likely to win a second start.
That statistic has brought stinging criticism from some quarters, including Dutch legend Ruud Gullit who said: “How on earth is it possible that such an experienced and successful manager thought he could start the season at Man United without buying a couple of really strong central defenders? If you only strengthen the midfield and the attack, than you are underestimating the level and the power of the Premier League. And if you have so many injuries and you have not bought the defenders, then you are doing something wrong at your club.”
There is one piece of good news for Van Gaal, however, in the return of Moyes’ much-maligned first signing, Marouane Fellaini, from an ankle injury; and the idea of the Belgian midfielder, who hasn’t played since the opening day of the season, returning to score his first ever goal for United against his former club is an attractive one for headline makers.
If fairytales happen anywhere in football, it’s Old Trafford but whatever happens on Sunday we should know more about where United are heading this season. The Everton barometer is a very useful indicator.
