Why a good start is only that — a start

Arsenal supporters, and Liverpool fans for that matter, have a right to feel heartily encouraged by the sight of the current top four as the Premier League moves into October; but Jose Mourinho’s assertion the table means nothing until December will resonate with those who believe the vagaries of the draw have given some clubs, notably Manchester United, a raw deal in the opening months of the campaign.

David Moyes could not have predicted his side would go into October sitting 12th with only seven points; but he must have known the moment the 2013-14 fixture list was released just what a difficult job he had been given at Old Trafford.

Matches against Chelsea, Manchester City and Liverpool in the opening weeks of the new campaign have proved too much for Moyes, whose misery was compounded last week by a home defeat against West Brom — a result that means the vultures are already circling for today’s visit to Sunderland.

By contrast revitalised Arsenal, with the exception of a home derby against Tottenham, were given a relatively soft start by the fixtures computer — which has allowed the feelgood factor generated by the arrival of Mesut Ozil to gain rapid momentum and bring suggestions that the Gunners are now title contenders.

It’s not a situation that fools Chelsea manager Mourinho who believes his team’s start — including matches against United, Tottenham and Everton — was also tough enough to skew the league table.

“I used to say you have to play 19 games at home and 19 away and it doesn’t matter about the fixtures,” he said. “But you go to compare Arsenal’s fixtures with our fixtures, with Man United fixtures — it’s un-comparable. So you have to play every game and forget the table; because the table will mean something from December. Then you see where you are; who is behind you, who is in front of you. November-December means something. Now it doesn’t.”

Mourinho’s belief will be best tested this weekend when Arsenal face a tricky fixture at West Brom, still on a high from their victory at Old Trafford, while his side head for Norwich; and it will reach a peak in a few weeks’ time when Arsene Wenger’s side endure a tough run of games against Chelsea, Liverpool, Borussia Dortmund and Manchester United between October 29 and November 10.

“That period will be a hard time for us and really intense,” defender Thomas Vermaelen recently admitted — even for an Arsenal team who have won 10 games in succession in all competitions if you include a victory on penalties in the Capital One Cup at The Hawthorns.

History suggests, however, October is no time to get carried away. The last time Arsenal won 10 in a row for instance, in 2007, Wenger’s side dropped off alarmingly in the second half of the season, when they were knocked out of the Champions League by Liverpool, the FA Cup by Man United and the League Cup by Spurs (a thoroughly miserable 5-1 defeat), before eventually slipping to third in the Premier League.

Statistics, of course, can prove anything. But it is also worth noting that in the last five years the team that went into October top of the table has never gone on to become champions; a surprising anomaly that seems to give credence to Mourinho’s view that the Premier League table at this stage of the season does not rank teams faithfully or accurately.

Perhaps a fairer way to judge the progress of teams is to compare results so far this season with results against the same sides last year; and there are some interesting conclusions to draw.

Arsenal, for instance, spent much of last season in ‘crisis’ while this year the positive vibe around the Emirates, in part down to being top of the table, is building rapid momentum. But Wenger’s side took more points last season (18 compared to 15) from the six fixtures they have played so far against Aston Villa, Fulham, Tottenham, Stoke, Sunderland and Swansea.

Liverpool’s improvement is more pronounced — four more points and eight more goals from corresponding fixtures as they prepare to face Crystal Palace today; while Chelsea and Tottenham (at home to West Ham tomorrow) are scoring fewer goals than last season even if the bookmakers believe they are far closer to challenging for the title than 12 months ago.

No doubt it will all even out in the end; but Arsenal and Liverpool will cling to the hope momentum count for so much and make the table — whether fair or not — worth looking at.

“The reality is everybody likes to look at the table,” admitted Mourinho. “And when you look at it, it gives confidence to some — and pressure on others.”

Right now it is confidence to Arsenal and pressure on United; but being top in October does not make you a permanent fixture.