How pivotal are top-four games?

Just over a year ago Manchester City went to the home of their greatest rivals protecting a two-point lead in the title race.

What followed was sensational: Manchester United were crushed 6-1 on their own turf by their ‘noisy neighbours’, a result that gave City far more than three points and a goal-difference boost that would ultimately prove crucial.

It was a statement of intent, one that gave City the belief they could be champions.

Tomorrow, United travel to leaders Chelsea in a very similar position to that which they found themselves last season — scoring freely but looking defensively vulnerable.

Defeat to the leaders would leave Alex Ferguson’s men trailing by seven points.

It wouldn’t be an insurmountable gap at this stage of the campaign but it would leave United with a significant mountain to climb.

For Chelsea, whose title triumphs under Jose Mourinho came after similarly blistering starts, victory would provide a huge confidence-booster and would mean that by the end of October they would have beaten three of the four teams (City being the exception), Arsenal and Tottenham away and United at home, with aspirations of finishing in the top four.

In other words, their championship credentials would be undeniable.

How important is coming out on top in that mini league of results among the top four?

The picture over the last decade is somewhat mixed but generally doing well in the mini league is vital.

In the last 10 seasons the title winner has picked up the most points from the mini league of the top-four teams on seven occasions, 2011/12, 2009/10, 2007/08, 2005/06, 2004/05, 2003/04 and 2002/03.

City last season and Chelsea in 2009/10 and 2005/06 have the best record, picking up 15 points from a possible 18.

Given City’s triumph came on goal difference and Chelsea’s 2009/10 success was secured by a single point the importance of their mini league results in those seasons is obvious.

The most recent exception to the trend of the mini league victors winning the title was in the 2010/11 season when Arsenal and champions United both finished with 10 points in the top-four mini league but the Gunners, who finished 12 points behind the champions after a late-season collapse in the aftermath of the Carling Cup final defeat to Birmingham City, had a marginally superior goal difference.

United’s success that season was not primarily based on results against the elite but on imperious home form which saw them drop just two points all season.

Perhaps the most striking example of the top-four mini league giving a picture different to the final table came in 2008/09, the last time Liverpool managed a sustained title tilt.

That season, under Rafa Benitez, Liverpool lost just two league games all season and amassed 86 points but still finished four points behind United.

Remarkably, Liverpool did the double over United and Chelsea that season.

With a finally tally of 14 points Liverpool finished nine points ahead of United in the mini league but the amount of games they drew (11 in all) meant it was United who, despite winning just one of the six games against their direct top-four rivals, were again celebrating in May.

The third example from the last decade of a side winning the title despite falling short in the top-four mini league came in 2006/07.

That season, United won their first championship in four years, finishing with 89 points, six more than Chelsea.

Yet it was Arsenal, despite finishing 21 points off the pace, who won the mini league with 11 points.

The Gunners did the double over United thanks to late winners from Emmanuel Adebayor at Old Trafford and Thierry Henry at the Emirates.

However, Arsenal won just seven games away from home all season and after a sluggish start to the campaign were never serious contenders for the title.

And, despite winning 28 of their 38 league games United finished with eight points in the mini league thanks to a double over Liverpool and two draws with Chelsea.

But another draw involving Chelsea, 1-1 at Arsenal, secured United’s ninth title in 15 years.

United have since added three more titles to that record but, having lost the first of what may prove their mini league fixtures at home to Tottenham last month, Alex Ferguson will be aware that in order to be celebrating in May avoiding defeat at Stamford Bridge is crucial.

For Chelsea, victory would put them well on course to win the mini league.

And that would leave them well on course for title glory.

The stakes are high for both sides.