A grand finale to a season to remember

Rarely can a title battle have registered so highly on the Hollywood scale

This is the time of year when football’s mathematicians and statisticians start to dribble in their sleep at the prospect of a myriad of permutations on the final day of the season; and 2011-2012 has to go down as one of the most satisfying of all campaigns for even the most demanding soccer geek.

Everywhere you look in the Premier League tomorrow, there are numerous potential outcomes to contemplate; a flurry of possible twists and turns that will affect the figures — and the inevitable prospect of dreams being fulfilled and hopes being cruelly dashed, maybe by just a single goal, a single decision.

Nowhere is that more evident than at the top of the table where Manchester United and Manchester City, currently both on 86 points from 37 games, will complete the tightest title race since Arsenal edged Liverpool on ‘goals scored’ back in 1989.

It seemed impossible at the time that anything would ever match the drama of Michael Thomas’s title-winning goal in the last minute of the last match of the season at Anfield — which gave Arsenal a 2-0 victory and left both teams on the same points and the same goal difference.

But, after the season we have had so far, it would take a brave man to insist outright that everything is already over and decided this time.

Alex Ferguson yesterday admitted it would take a ‘stupid’ result when Manchester City host QPR needing only to match United’s result at Sunderland to clinch their first title in 44 years.

But what would you call Manchester United 8 Arsenal 2? Or Manchester United 1 Manchester City 6? Or Tottenham 1 Manchester City 5? Or Wigan 1 Man United 0? Nothing can be ruled out in this craziest of campaigns; so neutrals will be expecting drama at the Etihad and at the Stadium of Light even though City have the momentum, and the advantage, thanks to an eight-goal superior goal difference.

Such an advantage rules out a Liverpool-Arsenal scenario and there is no doubt City are favourites; that’s a given. But when you consider their opponents QPR desperately need a result to avoid relegation, while Sunderland’s season is already over, then things start to look more complicated, as City manager Roberto Mancini has pointed out.

“In this situation, we are playing a team playing against relegation. It will be hard, more difficult than when we played Newcastle, more than United,” he said. “And Sunderland play for nothing. I am sure they will play 100%, but they play for nothing in their last game.”

Although the tabloid headlines have told a different story, there is no likelihood of Sunday’s action being labelled the closest title race of all time (Huddersfield once won it from Preston on goal average in 1924, finishing top by 0.024 of a goal to truly satisfy those of a statistical bent).

But what is true is that rarely can a championship battle have registered so highly on the Hollywood scale.

Two neighbouring clubs, both giants but one having lived in the shadow of its rival for half a century, going head to head on the final day with the prospect of a seismic shift in the balance if City can complete their dream.

There is added spice, as if the occasion required it, given that QPR are managed by Mark Hughes — a man idolised at Old Trafford where he won countless trophies and was subsequently ‘unethically’ sacked as manager of City — as Ferguson mischievously put it this week — after finding himself the victim of wealthy but impatient owners.

Those same owners have been talking to Mancini recently about an extended contract, even before the title is won, so perhaps they have learned their lesson; or maybe they are convinced they can make their money back in film rights once the trophy is in the cabinet and the Hollywood ending complete.

If that romance is too schmaltzy for you, and statisticians aren’t known for their love of talking from the heart, then the brutal race for third and fourth place is equally tense with Arsenal, Spurs and Newcastle still involved — and Chelsea ready to complicate it even further if they throw a spanner in the works by winning the Champions League on May 19.

Arsenal can make it a little easier if they win at West Brom to guarantee themselves third place; but after the way they threw away victory against Norwich at the Emirates last week it is almost impossible to predict the outcome of that one on what is Roy Hodgson’s farewell to the Hawthorns.

Newcastle know they have to win at Everton to be in the Champions League; but if Chelsea win in Munich they will take the fourth qualification spot as holders — and the fourth placed team in the Premier League will move to the Europa League. No amount of statistics can explain that.

At the bottom there is intrigue, too. Bolton know they need to beat Stoke and hope QPR lose if they want to escape the drop, although there is one other possible scenario to keep statisticians salivating. Aston Villa, whose fans surely must believe they are already safe, could still go down — if Bolton win big and Alex McLeish’s side get thrashed at Norwich. It would only take a 17-goal swing; and that, like United’s faint hopes, is mathematically possible.

What’s at stake on the final day

The title

KEY MATCHES: Manchester City v QPR; Sunderland v Manchester United.

For the sixth time in Premier League history, the title race has gone to the final day.

If that was not dramatic enough in itself, there is local rivalry in the mix for the first time as Manchester City aim to beat neighbours United to the prize.

City are looking for their first Premier League title — they will become the fifth team to win the competition, while their neighbours are looking for their 13th crown.

The final day shake-up is fairly simple.

Both clubs have 86 points, but City lead as they are eight goals better off in terms of goal difference.

So, if Roberto Mancini’s men match or better United’s result they will be champions — unless United make up that goal difference with a highly unlikely demolition of the Black Cats.

If United better City’s result they will be champions.

European qualification

KEY MATCHES: Everton v Newcastle; Tottenham v Fulham; West Brom v Arsenal. Champions League final: Bayern Munich v Chelsea (May 19).

Arsenal, Tottenham Hotspur and Newcastle will occupy third, fourth and fifth in the Premier League — but the order in which they finish is crucial.

Third place will guarantee a place in next season’s Champions League group stage. Fourth place usually guarantees a place in the competition at the play-off stage (with the winners of the two-legged play-off entering the group stage).

However, the fourth place team this season will have a nervous wait to see who wins the UEFA Champions League final between Chelsea and Bayern Munich in Munich on May 19.

If Chelsea win, they enter the competition at the group stage as defending champions, and the fourth and fifth-placed teams in the table go into the Europa League.

If Chelsea lose, the fourth-placed team enters the play-off as usual, with the fifth-placed team and Chelsea (who will finish sixth regardless of this weekend’s results) entering the Europa League.

Arsenal (third on 67 points) are in pole position, ahead of Tottenham (fourth, 66) and Newcastle (fifth, 65). Should goal difference come into play, Newcastle (+7) are at a disadvantage compared to Tottenham (+23) and Arsenal (+24).

The drop

KEY MATCHES: Manchester City v QPR; Stoke City v Bolton Wanderers.

QPR will be fighting for their Premier League lives when they visit title-chasing City.

With Wolves and Blackburn Rovers already relegated, Mark Hughes’ side are battling with Owen Coyle’s Bolton to avoid the drop. (Although Aston Villa could mathematically be dragged into the matter).

Bolton have to win at Stoke or they will be relegated. If they win, they will stay up if QPR lose at Man City.

If QPR draw, they are safe (unless Bolton beat Stoke by at least nine clear goals).