Old-school Leinster in real danger of stasis

Leinster’s Tommy O'Brien, Jamison Gibson-Park, and Harry Byrne during a water break. Pic: Nick Elliott/Inpho

Let’s press pause on ponderings about what happens next for Leinster after their Champions Cup final nightmare in Bilbao and, instead, wind the clock back 12 months.

Defeat to Northampton at the semi-final stage of last year’s competition left Leo Cullen, Jacques Nienaber and the rest of them needing to win the URC to salvage something from the wreckage of another spoiled season.

If the wait for a first European title since 2018 was the kernel of their inner turmoil then four years without a league crown was, in the wake of that Saints shock, a minor headache that had spiralled into a massive migraine.

The common refrain was that Leinster absolutely had to lift that URC trophy, not just to make up for another Champions Cup failure, but to ward off uncomfortable questions over a coaching ticket that had already lost four European deciders in the previous six years.

Going on to beat the Bulls did just that.

It bought Cullen and Nienaber time, but it’s not a plaster that can be reapplied. Retaining the URC is no given. To do it would be no small thing, but its value compared to 2025 would be seriously diluted on the back of what we saw in the San Mames.

Nothing less than that fifth star will do.

“It just makes you hungrier really,” said Josh van der Flier of this latest setback. “You get so close, and it just drives you on more. I was only chatting to someone… I remember hearing a story years ago about a fisherman trying to catch a big fish and he tries for years and years and that's what keeps you coming back. It's a pretty stupid example.

“It just keeps driving you on. It's what we all work towards. The URC means a lot to us but this particular relationship with Europe means a huge amount to us and Leinster. We'll be back next year giving it our all again but it's pretty tough to take at the moment to be honest.” 

Cullen has been at the helm for over a decade now. It’s a phenomenally long time for any manager in any sport and a few of the players still on deck were saluting him when he came on board. Others have spent the bones of a career on his watch.

Bringing Stuart Lancaster in after the Englishman’s traumatic disappointment as England head coach at the 2015 World Cup was an inspired bit of business. Leinster played some superb rugby and won some tin in their time together.

Lancaster’s regenerative powers at Connacht this season are proof of his abilities but Leinster still underachieved in his time in Dublin and have again since the cultural shift that has been the Nienaber project.

Nienanber, as was the case with Lancaster, is the senior coach. He is contracted through to the end of next season. The tea leaves suggest the South African will return to the Boks and Cullen’s current deal will expire at the same time.

It looks like the natural end point for both, even if Cullen’s words post-match in Bilbao reflected a man eager to get under the hood of this loss and see what can be fixed. He certainly didn’t sound like someone contemplating an end point in the coming weeks.

Whatever the name on the door, there is a tonne of work to do.

The embrace of the Nienaber model simply hasn’t worked and Cullen himself spoke revealingly about the quick style of play that is emanating from the Top 14 now. Leinster’s patient, procedural approach is simply old school.

Harry Byrne, Sam Prendergast and Ross Byrne have all tried and failed to fill the huge Johnny Sexton-shaped hole in the team and in the wider club. The irony of Ciaran Frawley looking so decent off the bench in Bilbao just weeks before leaving for Connacht didn’t escape anyone.

Cullen’s take on that over the weekend was that Leinster tried to keep him but they simply never gave the Skerries man a proper audition at out-half. And soon he’ll be gone. What now? Is there a modern Felipe Contepomi out there somewhere?

Leinster’s intake for next season is uninspiring. There is no All Black plugging in for a sabbatical before the World Cup in Australia. If the coaching staff remains then there is a real danger of a season of stasis ahead.

That's regardless of whether or not they go back-to-back in the URC.