Scotland: Could this be the year?
SCOTLAND'S YEAR: Will the 2025 Six Nations be Scotland's year? Picture: ©INPHO/Bryan Keane AR
It’s the hope (invariably followed by crushing disappointment) that kills you. So, the triple-whammy of losing skipper Sione Tuipulotu to a freak training ground injury of his pectoral muscle, of losing dynamic second-row Scott Cummings to a broken arm, and of Glasgow Warriors – who will provide the backbone of the team during this Six Nations – suddenly going off the boil when they succumbed meekly to Harlequins at Twickenham Stoop a fortnight ago, might just be some sort of perverse blessing in disguise by bringing expectations back down to a more realistic level.
As keen as Scotland fans were to keep a lid on their optimism, old habits die hard. A combination of a settled squad packed with individuals who should be in the prime of their career, a generally positive (although not sensational) November, and their rivals going through a transitional period, meant that we found ourselves once again hurtling towards northern hemisphere rugby’s premier international tournament thinking maybe … just maybe …
In fairness, these murmurings about 2025 possibly being the year that Gregor Townsend’s boys finally break the glass ceiling which has contained their ambitions throughout the Six Nations era – 25 tournaments with just five third-place finishes – to become serious championship contenders were not restricted to the grand Georgian terraces of Edinburgh’s New Town and the soft rolling hills of Scottish rugby’s Border heartland.
The fact that they have gone from no-hopers to possible dark horses amongst English pundits – if not our less generously disposed Celtic cousins – is a sign of the progress the Scotland team has made under Gregor Townsend.
Tuipulotu’s misfortune is a grievous and perhaps fatal blow to the very real chance he had of being a big hit with Lions in his Australian homeland this summer. The 27-year-old is expected to be back for the last few weeks of the season, and he should have enough credit in the bank to make it on the tour. However, without the backdrop of multiple years of consistent success at international level (and on previous Lions tours), it feels like missing this Six Nations could cost him his Test place.
For the team, it is a major test of just how far they have really come during the last 12 months, because when Scotland squandered a commanding 10-22 lead in round four of last year’s tournament to end up on the sore end of a 31-29 scoreline, it was hard not to jump to the conclusion that the talismanic Tuipulotu’s absence due to a knee injury sustained against England was the decisive factor in that capitulation.
He is not only an intelligent inside-centre who can both carry hard and distribute in heavy traffic, and who has a close synergy with Finn Russell which takes a lot of pressure of the stand-off’s shoulders, he is also a relentlessly positive personality who wears his heart on his sleeve which makes him a figure the team can rally around when things start to unravel as they did in Rome last March.
It could have been a whole lot worse, because at least it wasn’t Zander Fagerson who picked up a tournament-ending injury, which would have been catastrophic. In fact, even a short-term absence for just one or two games would likely be enough to derail Scotland’s prospects because there really is a startling lack of depth behind him.
The other tight-heads in the squad are Edinburgh’s D’Arcy Rae (a 30-year-old who has managed 59 starts during 10 and a half years in the pro game) and Leicester Tiger, Will Hurd (a 25-year-old who has 16 starts to his name and just one for his club in six appearances so far this season). The latter did score a try when he wore the No 3 jersey in Scotland’s Autumn hit-out against Portugal, and both are engaging guys, but neither are first choice at their clubs let alone close to being what Ian McGeechan might call a Test match animal.
Finn Russell may also come under the banner of irreplaceable, although the presence now of two more ‘kilted kiwis’ in the shape of Tom Jordan and Fergus Burke means that this might not be quite so essential to the Scotland team’s prospects as it has been for the best part of a decade.
It is a sign of the improvements Scotland still need to make that there is talk about two or three players we simply cannot afford to lose to injury (or suspension). There may indeed be more depth than ever before across the park, but the truly great sides do not have this sort of vulnerability in certain key positions.
As luck would have it, Scotland kick-off their 2025 Six Nations campaign against Italy (at home this time) on Saturday. They should have enough in the tank to see this one out, but not if they show the same lack of mental fortitude – a long-standing issue – as they did the last time these teams met.
If they do come through that opener relatively unscathed then they can look forward to the arrival of Ireland at Murrayfield, who will no doubt be keen to prove that rumours of their recent demise have been greatly exaggerated.
With the combative Fagerson brothers in the form of their lives and Jack Dempsey fit again after suffering a shoulder injury in November, Scotland will expect to be better equipped to counter Ireland’s suffocating power up front than ever before. But the absence of Cummings and of coming man Max Williamson means that much will depend on whether old warhorses Jonny Gray and Grant Gilchrist can provide the oomph required of a modern middle-row.
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