Ulster aim to kick-off successful Heineken Cup weekend for provinces

By Ian Cusack

Of all the Irish sides, Ulster’s bid to reach the quarter-finals of the Heineken Cup remains the most compelling.

The Northern Province are perched at the top of Pool 4 but have giants Leicester Tigers and ASM Clermont Auvergne in close attendance - just three points separate all three teams.

While Ulster have given themselves an excellent chance of qualification, both the Tigers and Clermont will be eyeing a maximum five-point haul against pointless Aironi, making this weekend’s showdown against the Tigers at Ravenhill a must-win.

Despite somewhat erratic form all season, Ulster enter tonight’s game with real momentum having registered convincing wins against Munster and Edinburgh in the last two games. They also play on the back of some good news in the scrum half department with both Ruan Pienaar and Paul Marshall singing new deals during the week.

Ulster’s Southern Hemisphere contingent is undoubtedly a major factor in their success of late with Stefan Terblanche looking an astute signing at full back, while captain Johann Muller, Pedrie Wannenburg and Kiwi John Afoa have brought experience, leadership and no shortage of power to the pack.

With Pienaar pulling the strings at scrum-half and boasting the credentials at fly-half to step in for Humphrey’s should the Ulsterman suffer a recurrence of his recent ankle injury, it’s hard not to wonder how much worse off the team would be if the IRFU’s new foreign-players policy were already a reality.

That both Humphreys and Wannenburg have won their fitness battles has allowed McLaughlin to pick effectively his best XV, with the possible exception of long term absentee Jared Payne.

The Tigers’ injury list makes for pleasant reading if you’re an Ulster fan with England internationals Toby Flood, Louis Deacon centre Manu Tuilagi all ruled out. One shudders to think what the powerhouse centre could do against a 10/12 channel of Humphreys and Wallace.

Flood’s exclusion from the team cannot invite complacency however as Billy Twelvetrees is a more than competent replacement; just ask any London Wasps fan, the 23-year-old amassed 58 points in two games against them this season.

It’s the mark of a great team, according to the popular cliché, to win games when you’re not at your best. Somehow, it’s hard to imagine even the most devout Munster supporter proclaiming this side’s ‘greatness’ or harbouring dreams of a third European trophy based on current form.

Munster’s position at the summit of a tricky Pool 1 suggests a champion’s response to last season’s catastrophic pre-knockout exit from the tournament. But the fans down south know that lady luck has been McGahan’s sixteenth player all season.

Two heroic last-ditch drop-goals from the God-like O’Gara served not only as a reminder of how irreplaceable the old boy is, but also papered over the cracks in underwhelming performances at home against a vastly superior Northampton side and against a second string Castres outfit at the Stade Ernest Wallon.

Even the back-to-back wins over the Scarlets were unconvincing, with Priestland’s wayward kicking coming to Munster’s aid in Parc y Scarlets and the Welsh side coming up just six points short of a Thomond Park scalp in Round 4.

Injuries to the luckless Felix Jones and Doug Howlett have left McGahan with a backline headache which has turned into a province-wide migraine.

Simon Zebo has catapulted to regular starter status despite question marks over his defence and positional sense. Denis Hurley continues to get isolated on his misguided bursts from deep in his own half and McGahan has yet to pin down a centre partner for Mafi, who for some reason seems to be a guaranteed starter.

Earls get the nod this week with the Aussie naming an unchanged side from that which eventually clinched a bonus-point win over Treviso last weekend in a far from vintage Thomond Park performance.

Yet Munster still look destined for a home quarter-final. While Northampton cling to a fighting chance of qualification, Castres are effectively out and are probably grateful to be rid of the distraction from the Top14.

In typically French fashion they have been unpredictable this season. A seven-game unbeaten run was followed by a winless November. But an under strength team selection for tomorrow’s game, on the back of a 45-0 thrashing at the hands of Northampton, suggests that Munster should do the business.

The illusion that Munster are firing on all cylinders is strengthened by the fact that their position is identical to that of in-form Leinster who also boast 16 points at the top of Pool 3. Unlike Munster however, Leinster’s good form has been replicated in the PRO12 where they enjoy a nine-point lead at the top.

Joe Schmidt’s side are unbeaten in their last 14 outings, the worst result in that run being a 16-16 draw away to Montpellier in their first Heineken Cup game of the season. More impressive still is the manner in which Leinster have put sides to the sword. Both the Cardiff Blues and Bath leaked a staggering 52 points at the hands of les Bleus, whose strength in depth is such that the absence of talisman O’Driscoll has been virtually unnoticed.

Sunday represents an opportunity for the defending champions to lay down a marker against second-placed Glasgow. Bath and Montpellier are tied on six points each, meaning one or both will be eliminated this weekend, opening up the possibility of Glasgow and Leinster facing weakened sides in their final group games with Bath more likely to offer some resistance in front of a home crowd.

Sexton and D’Arcy have overcome minor knocks to join a backline bursting with pace while both Kearney brothers will keep Leinster favourite, Isa Nacewa, company in the back three.

With no shortage of ball carriers in the pack either, you get the feeling it could be a long day for Glasgow defensively if they afford Leinster too much possession. As Glasgow head coach Sean Lineen suggested this week, it’s going to take a “truly special 23-man performance” to get a result on Sunday.

And what can we say about Connacht? Thirteen defeats in a row doesn’t inspire confidence for fans of the western province ahead of a visit to the south of France to take on Toulouse in their penultimate Heineken Cup Pool 6 game tomorrow.

An impossibly difficult draw in the pool stages dampened their hopes of knockout rugby in their maiden Heineken Cup journey. But to have just two losing bonus points on the board heading into their penultimate game is very disappointing for Elwood and company, only Aironi have fared worse.

Come what may in these final two games, Connacht will be haunted by their late collapse at Kingsholm where they bore all the hallmarks of a team in a habit of losing, allowing Jonny May to penetrate the defensive line when five minutes of concentration and discipline would have sealed a famous win.

Connacht need to relish the cauldron that is the Stade Ernest-Wallon. The bitter taste of a home defeat to Harlequins will still linger in the mouths of Guy Noves’ troops but Connacht need to throw caution to the wind. The Top14 leaders will feed off any hint of nerves or intimidation especially in the young half-back partnership of O’Donohoe and O’Connor.

Predictions: Ulster to win and just about deny Leicester a bonus point. Munster to put in a big second half and win by more than 10. No bonus point but a deserved win for Leinster. And I hate to say it but Toulouse to be at least 15 points better off than Connacht at full time.