Joe Schmidt upgrades his expectations for Ireland
With a positive medical report on Sexton, who went off with a tight calf in Leinster’s Champions Cup draw with Castres in France last Friday night but looks set to face Scotland on February 4, Ireland’s hopes in 2017 shine brighter than the black eye England coach Eddie Jones sported at yesterday’s media launch in southwest London.
Yet while the ebullient Australian’s prize followed a fall, getting out of his shower yesterday morning, Irish optimism for silverware has been on an upward curve since last year’s victories over South Africa in Cape Town, the All Blacks in Chicago and Australia at the Aviva Stadium.
Yet while Schmidt was far from bullish, he yesterday said he would be happy with a top-two finish and that represents a lift in his hopes for last season, which were merely for a place in the top half of the table.
It was a correct prediction, Ireland opening with a draw at home to Wales, losing in France and to eventual Grand Slam winners England on the way to third place.
“The last three years I kind of had to put the pin in the wall and make a marker and I think I said in the first two years that a top-two finish would be something I would be really happy with,” Schmidt said.
“Last year, just on the back of losing so much experience and so much ability through injury, it was a bit of a rebuilding time for us. I think we built not too badly, I think it is going to be more competitive than ever but again it would be great if we could get a top-two finish.”
With short odds of 6/1 offered on Ireland’s final game at home to tournament favourites and defending champions England on March 18 being a Grand Slam decider, and overall title odds on his team narrowing, Schmidt did not contradict the bookmakers but said: “The bookies had us 13/1 against the All Blacks, so I am not saying they get it wrong all the time but that’s a long way wrong.
“I am not sure which bookmakers but I would think that England would still be favourites but I am sure our odds would have shortened as compared to last year because I think there has been some visible growth in the team and we have tried to expand the depth.
“Nothing protects you from injuries to key players and we talked about Conor (Murray) before. That could still happen and derail you a bit but hopefully we will be as well prepared as we can be.”
Schmidt is hopeful he can at least start the campaign in nine days with a clean bill of health after the final round of Champions Cup games last weekend.
His chief concern was Sexton, of whom he said: “Johnny took a bruised calf into the game against Castres and it just tightened up. There’s not a lot of damage there, nothing’s showing up that’s overly significant. Johnny’s already starting back doing a little bit. We’d be confident he’ll be able to train next week and therefore be fully available to face Scotland.”
Although Sexton’s Leinster deputy Joey Carbery, his deputy last November in the famous win over the All Blacks, is still recovering from an ankle injury, the Ireland boss has regular back-up out-half Paddy Jackson available.
He has called in uncapped Munster 10/12 Rory Scannell and also had Bordeaux-Begles playmaker Ian Madigan in camp for the first two days of camp this week before the former Leinster man returned to France to prepare for Top14 battle this weekend.
“The first time I saw Rory play for Dolphin against Belvedere he had a fantastic game at 10,” Schmidt said of Scannell as a out-half option. “There’s a big difference between that and Murrayfield but he would be the guy who could cover there. We’ve also got Paddy Jackson available obviously.
“With Ian, he could only have done those two first days with us. You only get that three-day opportunity with the window. So it complicates that.
“Ian had an injury earlier in the season so he hasn’t had a lot of rugby really. I’ve kept in touch with Ian. He would slot back in pretty seamlessly for us, so that’s still something potentially that we could look at.”
Further good news was the progress being made by flanker Sean O’Brien, who injured his hamstring earlier this month but was “slightly further ahead than Johnny”.
“We’re confident he may train before the end of the week fully, but he should train fully next week.”
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