Final audition will change or reinforce Joe Schmidt’s thinking

Eighty minutes to change or reinforce Joe Schmidt’s thinking. That is all that is left for the Ireland players on duty this weekend to convince the head coach they are worth a place in his 31-man squad for the World Cup, now just three weeks away.

For most, the opportunity comes at the Aviva Stadium tomorrow afternoon in Ireland’s home farewell against Wales, for which Schmidt named his matchday squad of 23 yesterday, to be led by captain Paul O’Connell in the Munster veteran’s final Test on Irish soil.

More, including Ulster back three duo Andrew Trimble and Tommy Bowe, will turn out for their provinces over the next couple of days with the New Zealander primed and ready to study game footage of their efforts.

And when all the data has been processed, opinions gathered and decisions made, Schmidt will finally tell his players who will be joining him on the plane for their shot at global glory and who will not be returning to camp on Monday.

For Schmidt, that will be the hardest task of all as he pares his squad to a size he regards as, by its number, “an imperfect” 31.

“It’s an imperfect process and it will be, potentially, not quite the perfect 31,” Schmidt said yesterday having given starts to a number of his selection certainties to face an equally strong Welsh side.

“There will be a degree of risk in some positions because our cover won’t be as deep as we’d like it to be and there’ll be some really good cover in other positions.

“If you try to do all things across the full 15 positions and the bench that you have to utilise in a game, there’s always a degree of compromise and a degree of risk.

“It’s no different than if you play a particular play that’s got high-risk movements in it or passes or offloads in it, you try to calculate as much of that risk on the basis of what the reward is.

“It’s unknown territory for me and the whole coaching staff apart from (defence coach) Les Kiss.” O’Connell will tomorrow lead a side numbering several assured of their places in that 31, not least full-back Rob Kearney, centre Robbie Henshaw, half-backs Johnny Sexton and Conor Murray and blindside flanker Peter O’Mahony, all of whom make their first appearances of the summer.

No.8 Jamie Heaslip also starts having captained the Irish to victory in Cardiff against Wales earlier this month, while O’Connell’s second-row partner Iain Henderson, loosehead prop Jack McGrath and openside Jordi Murphy are also in the XV and look to be favourites to survive the final cut, as are replacements Sean O’Brien, Eoin Reddan and Paddy Jackson.

For the rest, the objective beyond sealing victory over Warren Gatland’s side is to avoid the phone call they and their head coach are dreading.

“How do you tell someone who has worked incredibly hard?” Schmidt pondered yesterday. “I know they’ve worked incredibly hard for the last eight, nine weeks and some of these players have worked very hard since the last World Cup and are desperately keen to be involved. You tell them as honestly as you can, that’s all you can do.

“What I like about our environment is that it’s very honest. Player-coach, coach-player. I think that’s the only way we can do it. You’d like to tell them face-to-face, but that’s probably not practical. It will probably be phone calls and, as a coach, it’s probably the least desirable part of my job.” In the meantime, Schmidt is leaving it to his players to stake their claims.

Luke Fitzgerald partners Henshaw in midfield, handed the 13 jersey and looking to emulate Keith Earls’s man-of-the-match performance three weeks ago in Cardiff as Schmidt looks for versatile cover in his backline. Earls gets another chance, this time on the left wing, with Dave Kearney on the right following an impressive introduction off the bench against Scotland a fortnight ago.

There were positive vibes from Schmidt yesterday regarding rehabilitating loosehead Cian Healy, whose return from neck surgery has progressed more speedily than imagined over the last two weeks, with the coach yesterday speaking of the Leinster prop possibly getting 20 minutes against England at Twickenham on September 5, implying he will be selected in the World Cup 31 on Sunday.

The Six Nations-winning coach was also bullish on tighthead Marty Moore’s recovery from a foot injury, although he will not feature either for Leinster or Ireland this weekend despite Schmidt opting to rest first-choice Mike Ross for the first time in his 20-game tenure. Nathan White starts in the front row with uncapped Tadhg Furlong in reserve.

They will all have points to prove this weekend, leaving Schmidt with unenviable task of deciding who travels with him to the UK. The Kiwi knows whatever he decides he will most likely be left hostage to fortune.

“I think if you’re a coach you’re a risk-taker. There’s only only two types of coaches, those who’ve been sacked and those who are on their way to being sacked. You’re always taking a risk.

“I know that when we name our 31, some people will say ‘it’s unbelievable, how could he leave this guy or that guy out?’ And the one thing I challenge them to do is to look at as much footage, to have had as much discussion with the players that I have, have watched the amount of training that I have and the coaching staff as a group have. That’s probably the privileged position that you’re put in, the access to more of the information than anyone else and then you take the risks.

“Then the imperfection of the 31 is the risk and there’ll be hindsight and in hindsight someone potentially will be able to stand up and say, ‘they got that wrong’. Or probably because I’m the one who’s going to be announcing it, it’ll be ‘he got that wrong’ and I’ve got to put my hand up then if we do get something wrong. I’ve got my fingers crossed.”