Nineteen is the magic number for qualification

It’s the last hurrah of the European Cup in its current form and since the bonus points system was introduced in the 2003/04 season 20 teams have qualified for a quarter-final as one of the two best runners-up.

Saracens are favourites for that final slot this season; with 15 points in their pockets, simply winning against Connacht today will give them an unassailable 19 points and, of course, guaranteed qualification.

Assuming Toulouse beat Zebre to win Pool 3, history too is against a non-Saracens team going through, be it Connacht, Cardiff, Harlequins, Edinburgh or second place from Pool 1.