Blues set to turn screw but may fall short on try count

Logic and mathematics continue to suggest that Leinster will fall short in their attempt to escape the confines of the pool stages this weekend but a scan of Joe Schmidt’s team yesterday was enough to give pause.

For the first time in 19 games this season, there is a case to be made that the province has finally been able to field its strongest side, although it may be that Quinn Roux would have claimed the number four jersey by now had injury not intervened.

Even still, Leinster have reintroduced Brian O’Driscoll, Sean O’Brien and Kevin McLaughlin after injury and illness-enforced absences and even their bench bristles with impact and intent as a result.

Rob Baxter has signposted Exeter’s own intent all week and backed that up by making few adjustments to a side which travelled to Clermont last week with qualification still a technical possibility.

Australian lock Dean Mumm is the only enforced change while Sireli Naqelevuki and Lisburn’s Ian Whitten are drafted into the back line for the injured Phil Dollman and Gonzalo Camacho.

The mobile back row of Tom Johnson, James Scaysbrook and Richard Baxter, which gave Leinster so much grief at the RDS three months ago, returns en masse and it will be interesting to see how Leinster deal this time with Exeter’s game which is fuelled on width and high-tempo.

The need for five points will probably dictate that. Jonathan Sexton didn’t kick for territory once against Scarlets last week although it is hard to see the champions spurning early, kickable penalties again this time.

Clermont may have scored six tries in Sandy Park last October but they trailed 12-10 at half-time and it was only when Exeter went down to 14 men that the screws were turned and similar patience will be required today.

Leinster to win, but not with four tries.

Verdict: Leinster