Decoding Ireland’s seeding puzzle

It’s all come down to this in terms of Ireland’s seeding for the 2015 Rugby World Cup draw.

Win against Argentina and they are in the pot that contains the second seeds, lose and they drop a level and will face a tough task as a third seed.

The figures and permutations give a complex facade but as Ireland manager Michael Kearney put it: “The bottom line is we need to win and the benefit of that is we’d move up to sixth.”

Should France beat Samoa at the weekend, they will join New Zealand, Australia and South Africa as top seeds, while England can’t drop below a second seed. However, if Ireland beat the South Americans, they will overtake them in the rankings, moving to a tally of 80.22 or 79.82, depending on whether they win by more or less than 15 points.

However a loss for Ireland will see them drop to 77.82 or 77.22 depending on the size of the defeat and neither would be enough for a top-eight position.

In such a scenario, Argentina stay ahead of Ireland, while both Samoa and Wales will pass them out, regardless of their results against France and New Zealand respectively. Indeed, Scotland too would move ahead of Ireland should they defeat Tonga while Italy could move ahead of Ireland with a big win over Australia.

The worst-case scenario Declan Kidney’s side would drop to 11th in the world although 10th is far more likely and ninth would be the best they could achieve.

Should Ireland draw with Argentina, it would take either an Italian win by more than 15 points against Australia or a Samoan win against France for them to drop from the top eight.

“We are basically just concentrating on the performance,” added Kearney.

“The rankings of course are hugely important, but what is in our control is winning.”