European hopes will ultimately go south
So if such blinkered thinking is accurate, the 2011 World champions will emerge out of tomorrow’s quarter-finals.
As gutsy as they are and despite their improvement over recent years, it won’t be Argentina. The All Blacks would have to lose a lot more personnel than just Dan Carter to see defeat by the Pumas as a credible option.
So, in terms of contests, it is the Australia v South Africa game in Wellington that promises the greatest intrigue. The Springboks are, by and large, old, grizzly, staid and probably a year or two past their best. The Wallabies are young, edgy, impulsive and probably a year or two from their best.
Who that gives the advantage to, I’m not really sure. Maybe referee Bryce Lawrence. Having had the Kiwi whistle-blower three times in their last five matches, the Wallabies should be up to speed with his idiosyncrasies and while he was the man in charge when they twice beat the Springboks in recent times, he was also adjudicating in the loss to Ireland at Eden Park three weeks ago.
Whatever the history though, let’s hope for everyone’s sake the referees don’t become the most influential figures in the remaining games.
The Wallabies certainly couldn’t blame anyone but themselves and the Irish for their surprise defeat in the Pool match, but since dusting themselves off from that unexpected blow, they have touted it as the lesson they needed to learn. They came a bad second in both the tactical and physical aspects of that game and know the Springboks will be strong on both those fronts.
There’s talk from the Aussie camp they will try to rein in their natural desire to play the ball-in-hand style, but one senses they might be indulging in a bit of double bluff.
They know they need to be much better in the hand-to-hand combat up front – set piece and breakdown alike – but Quade Cooper, James O’Connor and Kurtley Beale aren’t the grinding types. They should all have a growing understanding of the need for patience and the notion that there’s a time and a place for everything, but their DNA is such that if they spot a chance, it won’t matter which part of the field they are in, they’re likely to have a dig.
South Africa, on the other hand, have a far greater respect for the sacred territory inside their own half, and won’t do too much other than tackle and kick in that part of the field. With many of the same personnel still on board, such an approach and disciplined application won them the Cup in 2007, and memory won’t have faded.
This quarter-final may be won at the selection table, and to that end, while they are saying all the politically correct things about the strengths South African captain John Smit brings to his team, behind closed doors the Australians are air-punching at the news Bismarck Du Plessis has been left out of the starting XV.
Du Plessis has rightful claims to being the best hooker-forward in the game and while it won’t make things any easier for the Wallabies when he takes the field for the last half hour of the game, they’d rather see him at that stage than at kick-off.
On the other side of the ledger, Robbie Deans preference for Pat McCabe at inside centre ahead of Berrick Barnes will please the Springboks. Ireland exposed the limitations of McCabe’s straight line and upright running style by throwing a couple of defenders his way, locking up the ball while he was on his feet, and thus ensuring Irish ball at the subsequent scrum.
McCabe has been chosen in the expectation of a physical encounter, but Barnes is no wimp, and he adds a kicking and attacking option McCabe simply doesn’t possess.
The good news for Australia is that the big three who missed the Irish game – Stephen Moore, David Pocock and Digby Ioane – are back, and their presence transforms a very beatable Wallaby team into one, that on their day, can and should beat anybody.
Whether that day comes tomorrow might come down to the accuracy of the goal kicking. Courtesy of the constantly swirling wind, the Cake Tin is not the most loved venue for kickers, and while Australia’s O’Connor is inconsistent in benign conditions, you could probably put Morne Steyn on an arctic glacier during a force ten gale and he’d still steer them straight. Whatever prevails tomorrow, it seems almost certain the winner’s prize will be an Eden Park match-up with a Carter-less New Zealand. That’s an easier task than a Carter-full New Zealand, but the All Blacks are not, and indeed have never been, a one-man show.
Unless the Pumas make fools of all of us, four nations will be heading into the semi-finals knowing the hosts still remain the team to beat.
* Andrew Slack is a former Wallaby captain who writes for the Brisbane based Sunday Mail.
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