Treat it like our World Cup final

THERE has been plenty of talk this week about needing the flip of a coin to decide tomorrow morning’s World Cup quarter-final between Wales and Ireland (6am Irish time).

It is, by common consensus, a 50/50 game between two sides, recent Grand Slam winners both, that have been on similar development trajectories since those high points in 2008 and 2009 respectively, and which have earned plaudits for their efforts in successfully negotiating the pool stages in New Zealand over the last month or so.

Ireland captain Brian O’Driscoll has spoken of the narrow margins that dictate success or failure at this level and while Wales will present a considerable challenge to the Irish in all facets of the game at the Wellington Regional Stadium tomorrow, the margins to these eyes look as if they are just about favouring Declan Kidney’s side.

It will most likely be a single score that separates these Celtic cousins but if Ireland can win certain key battles against the Welsh, then by tomorrow brunchtime we should be looking forward to a first World Cup semi-final in this country’s rugby history.

Chief among those battles is the breakdown. Both sides have long been physical and aggressive at the tackle area but this new breed of Irish and Welsh back rowers, exemplified by Sean O’Brien and Wales’s young captain Sam Warburton, have the ball skills that were previously lacking.

We have an Irish back row, completed by Stephen Ferris and Jamie Heaslip, that can all perform the foraging, scrapping and carrying skills that were once clearly demarcated by specific positions, and with added awareness of off-loading to their support runners.

Without the ball, too, they are embracing defence coach Les Kiss’s innovative choke tackle with gusto. They will face a Welsh back row equally adept at keeping the ball alive in the tackle, but one that made a staggering 11 infringements at the breakdown last weekend in the 66-0 thumping of a poor Fiji side.

Stopping Warburton and No.8 Toby Faletau getting to Irish ball is going to be key, and the inclusion of Dan Lydiate at blindside, at the expense of Ryan Jones, following his recovery from ankle ligament damage suffered in week two further adds to the youthful flavour of the Welsh unit.

It also brings in another Newport and Gwent Dragon alongside Faletau and while Wales have brought excitement to the tournament with their young guns, Ireland’s oft-touted cup rugby experience may well provide the edge Kidney is looking for now that the knockout stages have arrived.

While Munster and Leinster have won four of the last six Heineken Cup finals, none of the Welsh regions reached the knockout stages of Europe’s premier club competition last season and less than half the team that landed the 2008 Grand Slam for Wales has made it to this weekend.

Furthermore, Ireland come into this game arguably better prepared after seeing off Six Nations rivals Italy in their last game. That was a real test in Dunedin last Sunday, a big rough and tumble against a passionate and at times overly aggressive Italian side.

Wales on the other hand have coasted into the quarters after two tough opening games against South Africa and Samoa, swatting aside Namibia and Fiji in their last two pool matches before they face the Irish.

That said, they looked very good in doing so and some of the handling along the backline, through Jamie Roberts and George North, in particular, has surpassed anything Ireland have managed this past few weeks. It remains a concern.

Let’s not forget, however, the unknown quantity cited by Donncha O’Callaghan last week in Dunedin. He called it the X factor, an intensity Irish teams can reach into the well for when it is most required and which got Kidney’s men through the Australia game three weeks ago to deliver a first World Cup victory over the Tri-Nations champions and also last week against Italy.

This is the last roll of the dice in an Ireland jersey for O’Callaghan, O’Connell, O’Driscoll and O’Gara to name but four and that will ensure a resurfacing of the X factor this weekend against a team big on talent but short on experience.

Wales are a multi-dimensional side, as Declan Kidney warned when he named his team this week.

“Wales,” the coach pointed out, “can hit you anywhere. They’re strong right throughout the team. They can burn you out wide, they can go up the middle against you, they’re good in the set piece.

“They’re the type of side you’d expect to get in this stage of the competition and if we’re focusing on any one area, they’ll burn us somewhere else. We have to treat it as a final and try and cover as many bases as we can.”

Stop Wales playing to their strengths, nullify them at the breakdown and get on the front foot as early as possible so Warren Gatland’s young guns are unable to dictate the way this quarter-final is played.

Easier said than done, of course, but it’s been done before.

And treat it as a final. It’s what this Irish team knows best how to do, and the Welsh have little experience of.