Ospreys can end the cup hoodoo

THE 13th season of Heineken Cup rugby kicks off tonight — so isn’t it about time the Welsh and Scots turned up?

Now, before pints of Brains Dark and McEwans are flung in my general direction, why not assess a few facts?

Of 88 quarter-final places available since 1996-97 — the previous season’s inaugural tournament moved straight from pools to semi-finals — Wales and Scotland have filled just 14 slots between them. The Scots’ contribution to that paltry total is one.

But they don’t even get that far when it comes to the semi-finals, while Wales can reflect on a poor 12.5% return, with England 25% and the dominant French topping 40%.

In terms of the 24 finalists, France have provided just under 50% of them, England 33% and Ireland 16.6%.

Wales’ sole representatives were Cardiff back in 1996 — no English clubs took part that season — while the Scots have failed to achieve anything beyond Edinburgh’s quarter-final flirtation.

Lies, damned lies and statistics, eh? If only.

With the notable exceptions of Munster’s mighty annual assault on Europe and the noble Llanelli Scarlets regularly threatening to land silverware, Heineken Cup rugby is pretty much Anglo-French business.

And while on the surface, precious little threatens to change this term, salvation — at least for the Welsh — could be at hand.

Forget the Scots. Glasgow might ruffle a few feathers in Pool Four, but does anyone seriously expect Biarritz and Saracens not to qualify?

And as for Edinburgh? Not a hope, given they are grouped alongside Leicester and Toulouse — five European titles between them — and Michael Cheika’s Leinster.

Poor Llanelli, meanwhile, are unlikely to emerge above Wasps, Munster or Clermont Auvergne in Pool Five, with Cardiff Blues’ Pool Three opponents including tournament favourites Stade Francais, plus solid English outfits Bristol and Harlequins.

Newport Gwent Dragons — widely viewed as the weakest Welsh region — could shake things up in Pool One, but only if they win all three home games and then triumph away to either Perpignan or London Irish.

That all leaves one Welsh side hovering, and you had better believe it, hovering with menacing intent. The Ospreys — forget the Neath-Swansea prefix, dropped months ago — are on a mission in Europe this season.

And there is a fair chance they could end years of hurt for Welsh teams in the Heineken Cup by landing the northern hemisphere’s biggest non-Test prize.

On the face of it, they’ve got everything to do in a group featuring current Guinness Premiership leaders Gloucester, 1999 European champions Ulster and the French enigma that is Bourgoin.

But take a look at this Ospreys squad, and then identify a coach on planet rugby who wouldn’t be drooling at the prospect of working with it.

Behind the scrum, the Ospreys boast Shane Williams, James Hook, Gavin Henson, Justin Marshall and Mike Phillips, among others, while up front the assembled powers include Duncan Jones, Ian Gough, Ian Evans, Alun-Wyn Jones, Jonathan Thomas and Marty Holah.

Recent form has seen them rattle up almost 100 points in disposing of EDF Energy Cup opponents Worcester and London Irish, leaving them on the verge of a second successive semi-final appearance.

But it is in Europe where it really matters, and the Ospreys could emerge as lone Celtic opposition among a last-eight contingent packed with English and French sides.

And the most exciting prospect of all is, if the Ospreys fly high in Europe this season, they are likely to achieve it by playing a scintillating brand of rugby. They’ve got the players to make a major statement. And as the statistics painfully point out, a Welsh winner is long overdue.