Mitchell plan kicks in, but watch out for the Wallabies

WHAT a difference 80 minutes makes in this rugby-crazy nation. By the time Allan Rolland signalled full-time in the All Blacks match with South Africa on Saturday, most of New Zealand's rugby sceptics had been blown away - along with the Springboks.

Monday morning's talk back shows were full of "I told you so" and "we always knew John Mitchell was on the right track".

Personally, I have always believed Mitchell was constructing, albeit slowly, a serious team. But having watched all three Tri-Nations teams in action, the eventual competition winner is still far from certain despite the crashing wave of Kiwi optimism.

South Africa can almost be counted out of the equation and unless there are a lot of changes made, they will not pose a threat in the World Cup either.

However, Australia have a huge amount of potential, and although they played poorly in the Tri-Nations opener against South Africa, they cannot be discounted.

The Wallabies have never found it easy to win on South African soil but are a formidable unit at home and they know how to win in New Zealand too.

In this competition that is really only serving as a build up to the World Cup Australia are in a position to slowly reintroduce some of their stars who have been out injured in recent months, which will allow them the luxury of arriving at the World Cup fresh, but on form.

Flanker George Smith and centre Stirling Mortlock have been out of rugby for some time and have yet to play in the Tri-Nations. Chris Latham didn't play the match against the Boks and Stephen Larkham only came on in the dying minutes of the game in South Africa. These players alone, will make a huge difference.

Australia look weak in the tight five and Ireland coach Eddie O'Sullivan must already be targeting this area for when Ireland meet Australia during the World Cup.

The Springboks scored fewer tries than Australia but dominated the tight five exchanges, thus limiting the flow of ball. By comparison, the All Blacks were able to win a large share of possession and their backs ran riot. As a New Zealander, I would still be worried about the tendency of the All Blacks not to put pressure on the tackle ball area when in defence. If the northern hemisphere teams have shown anything, it is that pressure at the tackle ball area is an effective defensive ploy.

New Zealand's system allows the attacking team almost unlimited chances to test the defensive line. With multiple phases, teams with the attacking ability of England or Australia are bound to force the gaps.

New Zealand's other Achilles heel is the goal kicking of Carlos Spencer. As the games get tighter, easy penalty kicks will be crucial. Full-back Ben Blair, who was not selected to play last weekend due to a bout of 'flu, is the obvious replacement kicker, but Mitchell may be unwilling to tinker with a backline that was so dominant.

Next weekend's Wallabies versus All Blacks match in Sydney will provide a much better gauge of the strength of the southern hemisphere challenge for World Cup honours.

As it will be for the World Cup, next weekend Australia will be playing at home in the 2000 Olympics stadium which will give them a definite advantage. Defensive awareness will be tested to the full as both teams are sure to want to play attacking rugby. Australia have the midfield talent but are struggling to come up with the right combination whereas the Aaron Mauger and Tana Umaga pairing looked great last Saturday with Umaga playing below his best.

The real X factor for New Zealand in the coming weeks could be the debut of Kees Meeuws as the starting loosehead prop. Normally a tighthead, the All Blacks are spending hours working on his techniques as a loosehead. He was very impressive in the time he was on the field last weekend. An extremely strong player, Meeuws is using that strength to score tries on a regular basis.

One instance that many Kiwis found significant last weekend was the final scrum of the match when the All Black pack, with Meeuws at loosehead, ran right over the South African eight. What was historically the cornerstone of the All Blacks, an uncompromising dominant forward pack, has been lacking over recent years and Mitchell is working hard to rebuild such a unit. This latest All Black victory has quietened the protests regarding Christian Cullen's omission. But he is far from forgotten.

No doubt, however, all Irish rugby fans will be focussed on what happens in Sydney next Saturday. Australia's last convincing performance was against a tired Ireland back in early June. Since then it has been all downhill and Saturday will show whether their individual talent is likely to combine into a team likely to successfully defend the World Cup. And there will be no better test than against their arch rivals from across the Tasman Sea.