Munster eye bonus

CALCULATORS at the ready, the permutations are endless. After another pulsating weekend of European action, Munster and Leinster are finally in control of their own Heineken Cup destiny.

As anticipated, Ulster’s defeat at home by Biarritz means they have failed to make the knockout stages for the seventh season in-a-row.

Munster’s excellent victory in Castres on Friday night has ensured that the clash with Sale in Thomond Park on Saturday will dictate their future in this year’s competition. As a result of Sale’s bonus point victory over Newport Gwent Dragons yesterday, the Manchester side now have a five-point lead over Munster in Pool One. They are already guaranteed qualification.

For Munster to top the pool, and possibly land a home quarter-final - which would be played in Lansdowne Road - they must beat Sale and score four or more tries to secure a bonus point. While both sides would then be level on 23 points, Munster would go top by virtue of accumulating more points (i.e. five to Sale’s four), in their head-to-head games. Should Sale lose by a margin of seven points or less, and collect a bonus point, they will top the group on 24 points.

However, victory without a bonus point will ensure Munster advance as one of the best placed second sides. That would inevitably lead to an away quarter-final. My best prediction at this juncture is that it would be against Biarritz or Toulouse. Defeat would signal their exit from the tournament.

Likewise, Leinster must travel to face Bath at the Rec and win to secure their passage as a second best runner-up. Bath’s impressive victory over Bourgoin on Friday night means they have already won the group. That said, like Sale they will fight tooth and nail to secure the victory that would improve their final seeding.

While it is impossible to predict with any certainty given the myriad of potential results next weekend, the quarter-finals may pan out as follows; Bath v Stade Francais, Biarritz v Munster, Toulouse v Leicester and Sale v Perpignan.

Munster’s victory over Castres has ensured Thomond Park is the place to be next Saturday. While the result was hugely satisfying, I’m sure Declan Kidney will derive as much pleasure from the manner of the performance as the result. For a side that has struggled to translate dominance into points all season, the accumulation of seven tries will dramatically enhance the feelgood factor within the squad.

However when Munster reassemble today to plot the downfall of Sale, it is important that they assess the reality of the situation. In the past we have been critical of Bourgoin for fielding weakened sides in this tournament. When they did so last year against Leinster, former French international Laurne Seigne was at the helm. This year he has assumed control in Castres. On Friday night, he chose to leave at least nine first-choice players out of the team to face Munster. While it has worked in Munster’s favour on this occasion, the challenge Sale will present will be of a totally different nature. The players will appreciate this better than anyone. One of the most pleasing aspects in Castres was the fact that on the final whistle emerging young talent like Tomas O’Leary, Jeremy Manning, Barry Murphy and Ian Dowling were on the field to sample a famous victory. All have been successfully introduced to European rugby this season. That augurs well for the future.

THE other major plus was the manner in which Munster finally got their continuity game going. The interplay between backs and forwards was excellent and the ability to keep the ball alive and not concede silly turnovers was encouraging.

The return of Paul O’Connell has also had a galvanising effect up front. As a unit, the forwards played extremely well but now face the ultimate test against a massive Sale unit. Behind the scrum, it was also encouraging to see Ronan O’Gara back to his best. If the clash up front is worth waiting for, O’Gara’s tactical battle with Charlie Hodgson offers another sideshow to whet the appetite. Tickets will be like gold dust.

At the RDS on Saturday, Leinster secured their expected victory over Glasgow with relative ease. Almost in response to Munster’s achievement in scoring seven tries against Castres, Leinster scored eight on the way to a comfortable victory. Most notable amongst those was the brace scored by Brian O’Driscoll, the first since his comeback from injury.

While the Lions captain still lacks sharpness, the portents are promising. Given his protracted absence from the game and the seriousness of his injury, it will take at least another five games to regain confidence and match fitness.

While Leinster would be somewhat disappointed with a number of defensive lapses, most notably in the build-up to Glasgow’s first try, overall they can be pleased with their performance.

In the opening half, the forwards laid the platform for victory by playing route one rugby. Their maul in particular was well executed and paved the way for their opening score. The lineout was also impressive with Malcolm O’Kelly the dominant figure throughout. He seems fully recovered from his recent injuries and is sure to start for Ireland in the Six Nations. The addition of Australian Cameron Jowitt has also added to their options out of touch.

With a quality platform laid by the pack, Leinster had secured their four-try bonus point by half-time. Had Felipe Contepomi brought his kicking boots, the margin of victory would have been even greater.

On Sunday, Leinster face a challenge of entirely different proportions. Bath remain unbeaten in the pool and the performance of their forwards against Bourgoin was hugely impressive. The appointment of Brian Aston as head coach has also added to their ambition behind the scrum. With just a second best place slot open to them, Leinster have a dogfight on their hands.