Ruby Walsh on Cheltenham: Champion Hurdle is a one-horse race this year. Surely?
STATE OF THE ART: Paul Townend with State Man at Prestbury Park on Monday. Pic: INPHO/Tom Maher
After all the talking and the build-up, it's finally time for the action to commence. At 1.20pm Tuesday, the atmosphere, nerves, tension, and excitement will make the parade ring a hot and heated environment.
In traditional fashion, the curtain will rise when the tape flies back at the two-mile hurdle start and the runners thunder up Cheltenham’s Old Course for the Supreme Novice Hurdle.
That release of tension will pour from the grandstand and feed into the pace of the opening contest, which can be run at a tempo mirroring the expectation of 60,000 fans. You often hear of the frantic early encounters in a big game in every sport, and the Supreme Novice Hurdle is horse racing’s equivalent.
Maybe somebody's lifetime ambition will be fulfilled by 1.35pm, but I feel that Paul Townend can get in control after half a mile and put a little manners on the contest through the middle third. If he manages to take the pace out of this race and get control of the speed, he will be hard to pass from the second-last.
Thus far in his career, Tullyhill's jumping has been far from foot-perfect, but with a lack of other front runners in this contest, I don't think it will be tested like some believe it might be. My fear for Mystical Power could be how he handles the preliminaries, and Firefox could prove to be the most significant danger. Mistergif could nick some prize money if you fancy one at an each-way price.
Next up is the Arkle Novice Chase, and with five selections here, you could still be wrong. Matata and Quilixios are sure to set a decent pace so that stamina will be a requirement, but there are so many imponderables here that I am confused. Will a strong pace suit Found A Fifty? Could it hinder Il Etait Temps? Will Gaelic Warrior bounce back and stay on the track? Can JPR One jump well enough? Is Hunters Yarn a strong enough finisher? Has Gavin Cromwell called it right, switching My Mate Mozzie to run here? Who knows, so maybe Master Chewy to be placed is the call.
The Ultima is the festival’s opening handicap, and it has a habit of giving the home fans something to cheer about. It is the first handicap, so it is usually the opening ride at the meeting for many jockeys. That can bring back some of the tension from the Supreme, and this contest suits strong stayers because of that. The winner usually comes from the top end of the market, too, and Trelawne has claims in a tough race.
The day's highlight comes at 3.30pm, and whatever price Constitution Hill would have been, State Man should be even shorter in his absence. This is a one-horse race with multiple competitors, and only bad luck stands in the way of Paul Townend winning a Champion Hurdle and Willie Mullins collecting his fifth. He has to gallop two miles and jump eight hurdles, but for a 33% return on your money, this is as good as National Hunt racing gets.
Future opposition could follow him onto the track 40 minutes later when the youthful Lossiemouth will bid for a second Festival victory as she looks to maintain her upward trajectory through life. She is talented, and I have no worries about her at today's new trip of two miles and four furlongs.
That said, Paul Townend probably won't be able to keep things as simple as he will on State Man, and he will need to settle Lossiemouth and produce her with a challenge on the run to the last. Still, for someone of his talent, that is not exactly a problematic challenge.
This is a division the Irish will dominate. If you are looking for something each-way to chase the favourite home, then Gala Marceau can probably be forgiven for her poor run at Punchestown last time, and represents place value, but the State Man–Lossiemouth double is today’s nap.
The Boodles Fred Winter is a race all the shrewd form judges love, but it is not an affair that has ever captured my imagination from a betting point of view. Trying to figure out which one of them is the best horse, let alone which might be the best handicapped, has always felt like a lot of work for little reward to me, but having watched them all, Ose Patir could be completely unexposed.
Embassy Gardens will be a warm order to keep the favourite backers going in the last, but I fear Willie Mullins might have to play second fiddle to his nephew, Emmet, here in the race named after his mum.
A run over two miles before last season's Festival didn't enhance Corbetts Cross's chance in the Albert Bartlett, where he raced like a two-miler in a three-mile race before eventually ducking out at the last when looking vulnerable to Stay Away Fay.
He has been campaigned more sedately this season and been taught to race in a more relaxed fashion which could pay dividends this afternoon when he attempts three miles and six furlongs for the first time. I have believed for quite a while that this horse has the potential to be a top-graded chaser, and he looks like the pick to me to wrap up a great day.
