Course and distance to test Dawn’s limits
With the exception of minimal experience at the turn which comes shortly after the break over the seven-furlong trip at the Curragh, Dawn Approach’s ability to handle a turning track is an unknown - and even the Curragh outing hardly counts as the horses were in no rush to take the turn, moving right off to race the middle of the track.
Epsom - Tattenham Corner, in particular - offers a completely new test, which adds to the doubts over his suitability to today’s test.
All the concerns aside, what the unbeaten son of former winner New Approach possesses in spades is class and the fact he gives generously in a finish. If he stays the trip, I suspect the latter attribute will ensures he becomes the third horse in the five years to win both the Newmarket 2000 Guineas and the Derby, but it's a big if, accentuated in punters’ eyes by his short odds.
His damsire, Phone Trick, is the issue. He hasn't sired a winner beyond nine furlongs. While there is plenty of stamina elsewhere on Dawn Approach's page, Phone Trick is very close to the front line. It’s not that Jim Bolger’s horse can’t win, but, at 5-4, I can't be tempted.
Barring the obvious influence of sire Galileo, Battle Of Marengo is not a guaranteed stayer, being as he is out of a Green Desert mare. He has certainly proved his stamina for ten furlongs, but beyond that we can't be absolutely sure. It’s not a huge concern as he races as though he ought to get the extra couple of furlongs, but he has never oozed class, and his Derrinstown form took a knock when Little White Cloud ran-up behind Leading Light, last weekend. I believe he’ll find at least a couple too good.
Fellow-Ballydoyle raider Ruler Of The World is proven over the trip, having absolutely bolted clear to win the Chester Vase.
Runner-up Mister Impatience didn't do a lot for the form when well beaten in Listed company next time, but the winner at Chester was vastly superior and can only go on improving.
Ryan Moore is reportedly very sweet on his chances, and while it's a big step up, he has definite claims.
Another stable companion, Mars, could go any way, from winning impressively to bombing out.
He was favourite for this race before he made his impressive racing debut at Dundalk last year, but he wasn't seen again until running sixth behind Dawn Approach in the Newmarket Guineas.
It wasn't a bad effort from a horse expected to excel over middle distances, but it left us in the dark somewhat. The drying ground should be in his favour, and supporters have reason to be optimistic of a much-improved effort, but quite what we'll get is hard to know. Are odds of 14-1 quite enough to tempt us in? Perhaps.
Andre Fabre’s Ocovango has to be respected for the fact he is being sent over by one of Europe’s best trainers and a man who doesn’t waste a lot of money on air fares for his horses.
Like first German raider Chopin, he’s unbeaten but very hard to assess.
And they are typical of this race: lots of potential but firm assessment of capabilities is difficult.
Dawn Approach is the class animal and win or lose he may remain the best horse in the bunch, but there’s certainly enough in there to test his limits over this trip. If taking him on on the exchanges is not the option for you, Mars and Ruler Of The World appeal as each-way alternatives.
