Estimate primed for big run in Queen’s Vase

After the gallant effort of Carlton House in the Prince of Wales’s Stakes on Wednesday and the disappointment of Momentary in yesterday’s Ribblesdale Stakes, it could be a case of third-time lucky for host and owner Queen Elizabeth II as her choicely bred Estimate looks set for a big run in this afternoon’s Queen’s Vase at Royal Ascot.

She is a half-sister to former John Oxx-trained Enzeli, who won the Gold Cup here back in 1999, and to Ebadiyla, who won the 1997 Irish Oaks and the same year’s Prix Royal Oak, the latter being run over one mile and seven furlongs on soft ground. That would suggest that Estimate will relish today’s two-mile trip and she should actually improve for it.

Of course, she must do so to win here but the extreme distance will find out a number of her rivals, particularly on soft ground, which the selection should have no problem with.

She shed her maiden tag on her seasonal debut last month at Salisbury, having being well beaten on her only start as a two-year-old. There were certain signs of greenness on her return but the further they went, the better she went as she galloped clear to win readily over the mile-and-a-half trip.

As a potential negative, she is the only filly in a field of colts but she’s one of a very few runners almost certain to enjoy the thorough stamina test of this race and Ryan Moore is the right man to deliver her with a strong late challenge which can land the spoils.

Repeater, who has been gelded since his two-year-old season, looks an interesting runner on his seasonal debut. He isn’t necessarily bred for this trip but the fact that he was runner-up twice over 10 furlongs as a two-year-old suggests he’s all about stamina. He did have his quirks but if the operation has served to straighten him out, he could run a big race at decent odds.

Aidan O’Brien has won this race twice in the last five years and he’s represented by Athens, who is one of the favourites. However, he looks a doubtful stayer on breeding and may be best left alone here.

Yazdi boasts similar credentials to Estimate, coming here from an impressive maiden success but he is less certain to appreciate the trip than is the royal runner.

Estimate’s shrewd handler, Michael Stoute, has won the race three times and, knowing what’s required, he’s certain to have had this in mind for the filly for some time. Primed for an improved showing, she looks good value at around the 6-1 mark.